USD/CAD approaches six-month lows at 1.3655 amid broader USD weakness
- USD/CAD depreciates for sixth consecutive day, approaching six-month lows at 1.3642.
- Higher Oil prices and USD weakness amid fears of a Yen intervention are underpinning the Canadian Dollar's rally.
- Monetary policy decisions by the BoC and the Fed might set the pair's direction on Wednesday.
The US Dollar is trading lower against its Canadian counterpart, on track for a sixth straight day of selling. The Greenback changes hands near 1.3680 at the time of writing, down from last week's highs at 1.3928, and drawing dangerously close to the six-month low, at 1.3642, hit on late December.
Speculation about a massive US-Japan joint intervention, following the US Federal Reserve’s request for US Dollar-Yen ratings to major banks on Friday, has kept investors away from the US Dollar over the last two days, wary of being crushed if two of the world’s largest Central banks decide to step in.
Higher Oil prices boost the Loonie
Beyond that, the escalating tensions between the US and Iran, after President Trump affirmed that an “armada” of warships is heading toward the Middle East, have boosted crude prices more than 3% higher from Thursday's lows, amid concerns of supply disruptions. Crude is Canada's main export, and an increase in prices tends to boost the CAD.
Trump’s threat to raise tariffs on Canada by 100% in retaliation for a trade deal with China has failed to dent the Loonie’s strength. Earlier on Monday, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney denied any interest in signing a free trade deal with Beijing, as Trump had suggested. The trade relationship between the two neighbours, however, remains highly uncertain, which is weighing on investors’ appetite for risk.
In the economic calendar, the focus on Monday is on the US Durable Goods Orders, which are expected to have bounced up in November. Investors, however, will keep an eye on Wednesday when the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve will release their respective monetary policy decisions. Both banks will, highly likely, keep interest rates on hold, and speculative investors will be attentive to divergences in the monetary policy stance to take USD/CAD investment decisions.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
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