USD/CAD approaches 1.3800 amid broad-based US Dollar weakness
- USDCAD extends losses below 1.3820, weighed by geopolitical concerns.
- Trump's tariff threat and the EU-US trade rift have triggered a "Sell America" trade.
- In Canada, mixed inflation figures endorse the view of a BoC pause.
The US Dollar is trading lower for the second consecutive day against its Canadian counterpart on Tuesday. The pair has dropped about 0.6% over the last two days, extending its reversal from 1.3928 highs to session lows at 1.3820 so far.
The US Dollar is showing the worst performance among major currencies this week as US President Donald Trump celebrates his first year in the office, confirming its will to take control of Greenland and the plans to increase trade levies on all countries opposing it.
US traders will return from a long weekend due to Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial Day. The escalating geopolitical frictions are likely to drive markets in the absence of key US data, while investors hold their breath ahead of Trump’s speech at the Davos meeting on Wednesday.
In Canada, Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, released on Monday, revealed that price pressures accelerated in December, to a 2.4% year-on-yeaar reading, beyond market expectations of a steady 2.2% yearly inflation. The Canadian central bank’s preferred BoC CPI, however, eased to a 2.8% year-on-year growth in December, from 2.9% in November, which allows the bank to keep its monetary policy on hold during the coming months.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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