USD/CAD remains below 1.4100 amid renewed expectations of Fed rate cuts
- USD/CAD struggles as Fed rate cut bets increased for December.
- The CME FedWatch Tool indicates pricing in a 69% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December.
- The CAD could weaken as WTI prices fall on hopes of a potential Russia–Ukraine peace deal.
USD/CAD remains subdued for the second successive session, trading around 1.4090 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground amid renewed expectations of a Fed rate cut in December.
The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets are now pricing in a 69% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, up from 44% probability that markets priced a week ago.
New York Fed President John Williams said on Friday that policymakers could still cut rates in the “near-term,” a remark that lifted market odds for a December move. Moreover, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said that Nonfarm Payrolls data supports a December rate cut, adding that if his vote were decisive, he “would vote for a 25-bps cut.”
The downside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) could face challenges amid declining Oil prices. It is worth noting that Canada is the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its losses for the fourth successive session, trading around $57.90 per barrel at the time of writing. Oil prices decline as the US pushes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal that could boost crude flows into an already well-supplied market.
Statistics Canada reported Friday that Retail Sales fell 0.7% in September, in line with market expectations and reversing August’s 1% increase. The decline was primarily driven by a 2.9% drop in motor vehicle and parts dealers, led by a 3.6% fall in new car sales.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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