AUD/USD recovers to 0.6500 as hawkish RBA minutes boost Australian Dollar
- AUD/USD claws back early losses as the Australian Dollar recovers after hawkish RBA minutes.
- The RBA held its OCR steady at 3.6% in the policy meeting earlier this month.
- Investors await Australian Q3 Wage Price Index and the US NFP data for September.
The AUD/USD pair recovers its early losses and rises mildly to near 0.6500 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Aussie pair pares losses as the Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens, following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes for the November policy meeting.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.03% | -0.01% | -0.08% | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.14% | -0.15% | |
| EUR | 0.03% | 0.02% | -0.04% | -0.03% | 0.00% | -0.11% | -0.12% | |
| GBP | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.06% | -0.04% | -0.01% | -0.12% | -0.14% | |
| JPY | 0.08% | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.04% | -0.08% | -0.09% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.04% | -0.01% | 0.04% | -0.08% | -0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.02% | -0.01% | 0.01% | -0.04% | -0.04% | -0.12% | -0.13% | |
| NZD | 0.14% | 0.11% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.12% | -0.02% | |
| CHF | 0.15% | 0.12% | 0.14% | 0.09% | 0.10% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
The RBA minutes showed that officials do not see any urgency for interest rate cuts as the consumer demand remains robust and inflationary pressures are proving to be persistently higher. However, officials kept the door open for monetary policy easing if “growth disappoints or the labour market weakens materially”.
In the policy meeting earlier this month, the RBA decided to hold its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 3.6% for the second meeting in a row.
Going forward, investors will focus on the Q3 Wage Price Index data, which will be released on Wednesday. The Wage Price Index, a key measure of wage growth, is expected to have grown steadily by 0.8% and 3.4% quarterly and on an annualized basis, respectively.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to extend its two-day recovery move as investors turn cautious ahead of the delayed United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September, which will be released on Thursday. The official employment data will significantly influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December meeting is 43%.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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