The AUD/USD pair edges higher in Thursday’s Asian session, trading around 0.6440 after falling over 1% in the previous session. The pair had previously touched a five-month high of 0.6514 on Wednesday, but retreated amid Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious policy outlook.
China’s exports likely to plunge, but imports may also slow, mitigating the tariff impact on net exports. Import intensity has been falling due to ‘onshoring’ of production and economic rebalancing.
It's been quite an attractive story to tell that if German fiscal expansion caused the EUR/USD exchange rate to rise significantly in March (from 1.04 to 1.09), then a weakened Friedrich Merz should see EUR/USD fall a few figures back, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.