The Turkish central bank (CBT) has adjusted its year-end inflation forecast for 2025, once again, upward to 31%-33%, compared with the previous 25%-29%. This revision aligns with existing analyst consensus forecasts.
The Turkish central bank (CBT) cut the rate corridor by 100bps yesterday, in line with expectations. However, as before, there are clearly contradictions between CBT’s assessment of inflation risks and these continuing rate cuts.
The median consensus on Bloomberg anticipates a 100bp rate cut by the Turkish central bank (CBT) today, to 39.50% repo rate. But there is a wide range of analyst forecasts – ranging from unchanged to 250bp rate cut.