MUFG analysts see growing downside risks for the Turkish Lira (TRY) versus the US Dollar (USD) as domestic politics and an energy-driven terms-of-trade shock strain Turkey’s external position.
USD/TRY rises after a slight decline in the previous day, reaching a record high of 45.7778 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the Turkish Lira (TRY) drops due to political uncertainty that emerges after a top court ruling targeting the main opposition party.
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose flags a sharp March deterioration in Turkey’s balance of payments, with a near-doubling of the current-account deficit, heavy capital outflows and a record drop in official reserves. The bank argues underlying vulnerabilities predated the Iran conflict.