OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong discuss how AI-linked investment has become a key pillar of US growth, equities, yields and Dollar strength. They warn that US-centric AI financing concerns can flip these supports, creating a risk-off environment with lower US Treasury yields and a softer USD, highlighting the Dollar’s growing exposure to an AI investment slowdown.
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that hotter US CPI has revived Federal Reserve tightening fears, but the US Dollar’s rally has been constrained by reversing Treasury yields and AI-led equity weakness.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note touched 5.35%, its highest since April 2002, and the 30-year bond hit a 24-year high. Brent is back above $100 a barrel after Iran stepped up attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Dearer Oil means faster inflation, so bond buyers want a bigger yield.