Taylor Morrison Home Tops Q2 Forecasts

Key Points

• - Adjusted EPS of $2.02 and revenue of $2.03 billion both topped Wall Street forecasts.

• - Net sales orders fell 12.2 %, and cancellations climbed; indicators suggest weaker demand ahead.

• - Backlog dropped sharply, and margins narrowed, with rising incentives and higher spec home mix impacting profits.

• These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires ›

Taylor Morrison Home (NYSE:TMHC), one of the largest homebuilders in the United States, announced its second-quarter 2025 results on July 23, 2025. The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.02, outpacing analysts’ estimate of $1.93. Revenue reached $2.03 billion, beating the $1.93 billion forecast. Despite solid cost controls and a strong showing versus expectations, the quarter showed growing pressures within the company’s order pipeline, including higher cancellation rates, lower net sales orders, and a reduced backlog. The period underscored the company’s operational discipline but signaled that softer demand and more competitive conditions may strain results in coming quarters.

Source: Analyst estimates provided by FactSet. Management expectations based on management's guidance, as provided in Q1 2025 earnings report.

About Taylor Morrison Home and Its Key Success Drivers

Taylor Morrison Home (NYSE:TMHC) is a leading national homebuilder, delivering single-family houses, townhomes, and resort-style communities across the United States. It also provides related services through its financial arm, offering mortgage, title, and homeowner insurance products.

The company’s ability to secure land in high-demand locations is a key factor in its growth. It uses a disciplined approach, relying on a mix of owned land and options to manage risk and capital outlays. Its recent focus has included diversifying revenue streams through financial services and expanding its build-to-rent operations to soften the impact of home sales volatility. Operational efficiency, product flexibility, and a broad range of home offerings allow it to respond to changing market conditions. Customer experience, community-focused amenities, and compliance with environmental standards round out its core priorities for ongoing success.

Quarter in Review: Earnings, Demand, Margins, and Order Trends

For the second quarter, Taylor Morrison outperformed expectations. Adjusted EPS of $2.02 beat estimates by $0.09, while revenue exceeded the consensus by over $100 million. The company closed 3,340 homes, surpassing its guidance of 3,200, and did so through strong cost control measures. The margin on home closings came in at 23.0 %, down from 23.9 % a year ago, but slightly above management’s projections. Selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) costs continued to fall as a share of revenue, hitting 9.3 %, a 0.9 percentage point improvement, reflecting ongoing operational efficiency.

Despite headline outperformance, several warning signs emerged. Net sales orders dropped 12.2 % from the prior year to 2,733, and the monthly absorption pace—measuring how quickly communities sell homes—fell back to pre-pandemic levels of 2.6 per community. This figure signals cooling demand compared to the elevated pace seen since 2020. The number of active selling communities edged down 0.6 % over last year, indicating little outlet expansion. Cancellation rates climbed sharply to 14.6 % of gross orders, up from 9.4 %, and 9.2 % of beginning backlog, pointing to increased buyer hesitation and reduced order durability.

Pricing trends reveal more about the sales environment. The average closing price dipped 2 %, but this was offset by a 4 % bump in units closed. In the East and Central regions, growth in home sales came with average selling price declines of around 6 %, resulting in just slight revenue rises. The West region saw a different mix, with revenue up 5.4 % thanks to higher prices, but flat closings. Increased use of buyer incentives, a greater share of finished speculative homes being sold, and a focus on clearing inventory contributed to lower margins. Margins fell compared to last year and to the previous quarter, as management leaned into tactical use of financing incentives to help buyers manage mortgage payments without resorting to broad base price cuts, which could undercut home values in backlog.

Backlog—a key indicator of future revenue—contracted significantly. At the end of the quarter, the company’s order backlog was 4,461 homes, down 28.7 % in units and 30 % in value compared to one year earlier. This marks a notable shift from the prior year and underlines the tough environment for new orders. Regional detail shows particular softness in the Central and East, with the West’s average selling price in backlog up 5.7 %. Management called attention to the “unique environment” and the need for “patient growth,” highlighting that it is prioritizing margin and returns over sales volume as market conditions shift. No major one-time expenses or gains were recorded, and the company is not adjusting dividends, as it does not currently pay one.

Business Mix, Strategy Execution, and Operational Highlights

The company’s land acquisition and development strategy stayed steady. It invested $612 million in land during the period, consistent with the prior year, and expanded its controlled lot pipeline by 5 % to more than 85,000 lots. Notably, a growing majority—60 % of lots—are controlled off the balance sheet, rather than owned outright, which is a way to manage risk and keep flexibility.

Financial services—such as mortgage lending, title, and insurance—delivered $52.9 million in quarterly revenue, a modest increase from a year ago. The mortgage capture rate, or percentage of buyers using the company’s lending services, held at a healthy 87 %, though it fell slightly. The build-to-rent business, branded as Yardly, combined with the company’s other service offerings, supports its efforts to buffer against swings in home sale demand.

On the operational side, tight management brought SG&A costs down as a percentage of revenue. Efforts to improve construction cycle times and personalize buyer incentives have been critical. The company continues to refine its mix of build-to-order homes and specs, using buyer data to guide incentives and adapt quickly to shifting trends. Energy-efficient design and community planning remain focus areas, as does continued compliance with local regulatory and environmental requirements.

The strong cash position—with $1.1 billion in liquidity at quarter end—and net homebuilding debt at 22.9 % of capitalization signal a disciplined financial posture. During the quarter, 1.7 million shares were repurchased for $100 million, and the company plans to buy back at least $350 million of its stock this year. No dividend was declared or adjusted. Portfolio risk is further managed by slowing new project starts, a direct response to cooling demand and higher cancellations, with the aim of keeping inventory levels in check and capital deployment efficient.

Looking Forward: Guidance and Investor Watchpoints

For the third quarter, management expects another 3,200 to 3,300 home closings at an average price of around $600,000, with gross margins close to 22 % and active community count holding steady. For fiscal 2025, closings are set to total between 13,000 and 13,500, with an average price range of $595,000 to $600,000. Management projects that gross margin will remain near 23 %, with selling and administrative costs staying in the mid-9 % range.

The company did not provide guidance on future dividends. TMHC does not currently pay a dividend. Investors should note the substantial drop in backlog and net sales orders, higher cancellations, and the company’s stated plan to prioritize margins and capital returns over volume growth for the near term. The direction of mortgage rates, buyer incentives, and the pace of inventory clearance, particularly for spec homes, will be important watchpoints. Any further decline in demand may trigger more aggressive pricing or incentive actions, potentially impacting margins beyond the current outlook.

Revenue and net income presented using U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) unless otherwise noted.

Where to invest $1,000 right now

When our analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, Stock Advisor’s total average return is 1,034%* — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 180% for the S&P 500.

They just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy right now, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of July 21, 2025

JesterAI is a Foolish AI, based on a variety of Large Language Models (LLMs) and proprietary Motley Fool systems. All articles published by JesterAI are reviewed by our editorial team, and The Motley Fool takes ultimate responsibility for the content of this article. JesterAI cannot own stocks and so it has no positions in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.