Prediction: Tesla Might Lose This $2.76 Billion Revenue Source That Is Nearly 100% Profit

Key Points

• Tesla will soon lose a critical profit source.

• This loss will make exciting growth opportunities more difficult to pursue.

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The future of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) appears very bright. Some experts believe the company's new robotaxi service could add more than $1 trillion in value by the end of 2026.

But there's one challenge few investors are paying attention to. This challenge could swiftly eliminate one of Tesla's most profitable revenue sources.

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Expect Tesla to lose part of this $2.76 billion revenue source

In recent years, nearly every electric car stock has benefited from automotive regulatory credits. These credits are earned under both state and federal programs, in both the U.S. and abroad. While each program differs in specifics, these credits are generally earned when a company sells low-emissions vehicles. These companies can then sell these credits to automakers that do not sell enough low-emission vehicles. For example, Stellantis bought roughly $2.4 billion of European and U.S. regulatory credits from Tesla between 2019 and 2021.

The idea behind these credits is to encourage investment in and production of climate-friendly transportation options. That is, these credits are designed specifically to spur adoption of things like electric vehicles (EVs). Over the years, these credits have certainly helped keep EV makers like Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid Group financially viable. Rivian recently generated the first positive gross margins in its history, largely thanks to the sale of these credits. Besides a bit of overhead, the sale of these credits results in nearly 100% profit margins -- a huge boon for capital-intensive businesses like auto manufacturing.

Soon, federal regulatory credits in the U.S. are expected to be eliminated due to the passing of President Donald Trump's "big, beautiful bill." According to The Verge, "The bill, which was signed by Trump over the weekend, would eliminate tax credits for EV purchases, zero out fines for automakers who exceed fuel-efficiency targets, and roll back other incentives for wind and solar power." That second point, zeroing out fines for automakers that miss fuel efficiency targets, essentially negates any value in purchasing these credits from an automaker like Tesla. In short, Tesla will very likely lose its ability to accrue and sell federal credits in the U.S. -- an immediate and sizable hit to both revenues and profits.

Image source: Getty Images.

Is TSLA stock still a buy, even if regulatory credits are eliminated?

There are a few important details to stress about the elimination of federal automotive regulatory credits. First, these eliminations affect the U.S. only. While other countries may shift their own policies, they will, for now, remain intact. Second, these eliminations will only affect federal credit programs, not state programs like California's or New York's.

Critically, Tesla does not break down its regulatory credit sales by state versus federal, or even U.S. sales versus international. Therefore, it's difficult to gauge the exact effect from the elimination of federal U.S. programs. Some analysts estimate that roughly 75% of this revenue comes from U.S. sources. Within that portion, most is likely derived from California's state-level program, since that program accounts for the majority of credit value in the U.S. overall.

Last quarter, Tesla's net income plunged 71% versus a year ago to $409 million. Regulatory credits sales, meanwhile, were $595 million last quarter, exceeding a total of $3.3 billion over the last five quarters. While Tesla won't lose access to most of these credits, they are clearly critical to keeping the company profitable. Tesla is one of the only companies in the world capable of pursuing huge growth opportunities like a global robotaxi service. If profits drop by $100 million to $200 million per quarter, however, pursuing these initiatives will grow more challenging.

In short, the elimination of federal regulatory credits in the U.S. won't kill Tesla. But it will make growth more difficult moving forward -- a critical factor for long-term investors to consider.

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Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Stellantis. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.