Where Will Duolingo Be in 1 Year?

Language-learning leader Duolingo (NASDAQ: DUOL) is soaring on the wings of a green owl.

The company's gamified online education services are drawing in tons of active users, assisted by a large cast of cartoon-style characters. The recent first-quarter report showed 130 million monthly active users (MAUs), up 33% year over year. The number of paid subscribers is rising even faster with a 40% jump, also driving robust gains in revenue and profits.

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Duolingo's stock price nearly tripled in 52 weeks, including an earnings-inspired 65% surge in the last month alone. At the same time, the company is making some game-changing strategic decisions, doubling down on artificial intelligence (AI) tools and automation.

Where will this radical AI commitment take Duolingo over the next year, and how will it affect the stock price? I don't have all the answers, but let's check out a few clues.

Duolingo borrows ideas from the best

Duolingo published an official long-term strategy document in April 2025. This overview starts with Duolingo's official mission statement: "To develop the best education in the world and make it universally available." From there, it describes a beneficial flywheel of more learners giving Duolingo the resources to build better learning tools, which then boost the customer growth again.

The company doesn't have a firm long-term roadmap. Instead, Duolingo prefers pushing out new ideas quickly and adapting to the lessons learned from each new experiment. This "Green Machine" philosophy lets Duolingo hire innovative people, let them experiment, and make a commitment to the ideas that work well.

This approach reminds me of the "move fast and break things" tactics in the early days of Meta Platforms. Going back even further, the company now known as Alphabet built the Google search engine in a flurry of quick technology updates.

Oh, and Alphabet's mission is to "organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful." Duolingo didn't copy that idea word for word, but the old Google approach sure looks like a direct inspiration.

Duolingo could absolutely have picked worse role models than two of the world's largest and most successful technology companies.

Finally, Duolingo's strategy statement points to a global target market of 1.8 billion language learners, currently boiling down to 117 million MAUs and 9.5 million paid Duolingo subscribers. The growth potential is massive, especially since language education is just the start of a much more ambitious vision. The strategy document says, "We started with language learning for its economic impact, but our goal is to build a 100-year company that transforms how the world learns everything."

Early expansion efforts include math and music, and a chess course is about to join the party. But in the long run, Duolingo wants to teach a lot of different subjects.

The green owl's new AI brain

Now, that document mentioned AI in passing. One week later, co-founder and CEO Luis von Ahn reinforced the AI focus in an email sent to all Duolingo workers.

AI has been a part of the Duolingo story for years, especially in the ultra-premium Duolingo Super subscription plan. There, the system won't just say that you got a question wrong, but will also explain the mistake in detail. You can also strike up a natural conversation with a Duolingo chatbot, featuring the cartoon characters you see across the learning platform.

But the company is going further with its AI plans. "Duolingo is going to be AI-first," von Ahn wrote.

That means generating brand-new quiz content from scratch, scaling up the Duolingo platform to serve a much larger user base, and building new experiences (like the Video Call chats) around AI tools.

It also means phasing out human contractors, wherever they're doing work that AI alternatives can tackle. That doesn't mean Duolingo will stop hiring humans, but there will be fewer new hires, and they should bring their best AI management skills to the job interview.

Can Duolingo chase AI innovation while keeping humans happy?

This all-hands memo was quickly leaked outside the company, inspiring more criticism than optimism. Many readers said they would stop using Duolingo. Some critics dislike Duolingo's heavy use of artificial intelligence, while others focus on the uncomfortable idea of replacing human talent with robotic automation.

The first-quarter earnings report hit the newswires two weeks later, and von Ahn added some color to his AI philosophy in the earnings call, saying:

We're going to try to automate everything. This is going to save us some costs on things that humans used to do that now AI can do. However, we're going to apply all of that, and many of those same people, to develop AI features.

In other words, Duolingo isn't planning to fire every human. Instead, people are being retrained and equipped with more AI tools. The AI shift is not about cost-cutting and profit-boosting. It's an attempt to accelerate Duolingo's innovation process.

What is that owl up to? Image source: Getty Images.

What's next for Duolingo?

The question is how clearly the management team can communicate this nuance to Duolingo's users and investors. The second-quarter report will show the direct impact on the company's user growth, perhaps with a somewhat slower MAU boost than usual. After that, it's off to the races with another growth-boosting gadget in Duolingo's tool belt.

I'm assuming that the negative memo comments represent a loud minority, like the grumbles you see anytime a subscription service raises its prices. I could be wrong, of course. A huge groundswell of actual cancellations would be a real problem, forcing Duolingo to slow its AI roll. It could even take the momentum out of its profitable growth trends, doing real damage to the stock and the learning system's reputation.

However, I'm not terribly worried about that risk today. Management didn't mention a wave of cancellations in recent conference presentations, nor did they highlight weak user retention metrics. Sweeping such trends under the rug is not a good idea, setting investors up for a hard fall after the next business report.

So I'll keep an eye on those metrics in 2025, just in case. But I do expect von Ahn and company to do the right thing, both in terms of accurate data reporting and a responsible balance between human and AI-driven operations.

In short, Duolingo's user count and stock price should keep growing from here.

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Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Anders Bylund has positions in Alphabet and Duolingo. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool recommends Duolingo. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.