Trump's Nuclear Interest in Ukraine: Which Stocks Stand to Gain?

TradingKey - The Trump administration is seeking to establish new agreements with Ukraine regarding critical minerals and energy assets, expanding economic demands on Kyiv to facilitate a peace deal with Russia. 

According to Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed "Ukraine's electricity supply and nuclear power plants" during a recent call.

Trump stated that the U.S. could greatly assist in operating these power plants due to its expertise in electricity and utilities. Moreover, American ownership would provide "best protection" for Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

Notably, Ukraine is home to four nuclear power plants, including the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, one of the largest in the world, which has been controlled by Russia since spring 2022 and remains mostly in cold shutdown.

What Drives Trump’s Interest in Diverse Resources?

Trump previously called for the acquisition of Ukraine's mineral resources. This reflects broader geopolitical concerns regarding the growing demand for minerals, significant price volatility, and the vulnerabilities within supply chains. 

Although the U.S. possesses many critical minerals similar to those found in Ukraine, it has historically outsourced mining and refining operations due to environmental regulations, high labor costs, and more attractive foreign markets. This has led to U.S. dependence on imports, particularly from China, which dominates the production and processing of these minerals.

Acquiring Ukrainian minerals in exchange for military protection means the U.S. can reduce its reliance on Chinese imports, thus addressing Beijing's comprehensive control over this industry.

So, what benefits does the U.S. have from Ukraine's nuclear?

Despite Moscow's relentless attacks on Ukraine’s thermal and hydroelectric power stations, aimed at crippling the country’s power grid, it has avoided targeting nuclear facilities that could trigger a radioactive disaster. Against this backdrop, the Ukrainian government has initiated plans to construct additional nuclear reactors, considering this the only feasible solution to ensure long-term energy security.

In fact, the U.S. already possesses direct nuclear power experience in Ukraine; the nuclear giant Westinghouse has been supporting the country's energy sector since the Russian invasion in 2022. Following the attack, the number of reactors increased from five to nine, marking a breakthrough after years of efforts to penetrate the Ukrainian nuclear market.

U.S. Fusion Technology Lags Behind China

China and the U.S. are in a race to create the first grid-level nuclear fusion energy. The U.S. led for decades, but China is quickly catching up. As major tech companies seek ways to meet the growing energy demands of artificial intelligence data centers, investments in traditional nuclear energy (derived from fission rather than fusion) have surged.

During his first term, President Trump increased support for nuclear energy, including nuclear fusion, a trend that has been continued by President Joe Biden. According to the Department of Energy's Office of Fusion Energy Sciences, China invests approximately $1.5 billion annually in this area, whereas federal funding for fusion research in the U.S. has averaged about $800 million per year over the past few years.

Congo's Resource-for-Security Proposal: A Potential New Path for U.S. Resource Access?

Last Thursday, Trump stated that the U.S. is seeking to sign global agreements on rare earths and minerals, with Ukraine being a particular focus. 

The Congo offered the U.S. exclusive access to critical mineral and infrastructure projects in exchange for security assistance. This negotiation has been partially inspired by similar proposals regarding Ukraine.

The Congo is the world's second-largest copper producer and the largest source of cobalt, with significant reserves of lithium, tantalum, tin, and gold. Supported by billionaires Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, KoBold Metals Co. has expressed interest in the Congo's lithium resources, marking the first substantial investment opportunity proposed by major American mining companies in the country, which has a reputation for a challenging business environment. 

However, Chinese companies dominate the industry in this central African nation.

Here Are Nuclear Energy-Related Stocks for Potential Gains

Upstream (Uranium Mining and Fuel Supply Chain)

1. Cameco Corporation (CCJ): Uranium mining and fuel supply

2. Uranium Energy Corp (UEC): Domestic uranium mining development and fuel processing

3. Energy Fuels Inc. (UUUU): Uranium mining and production

Midstream (Nuclear Technology and Equipment Suppliers)

1. Brookfield Business Partners (BBU): Nuclear reactor design (AP1000 technology) and nuclear power plant management

2. General Electric (GE): Nuclear energy equipment and technology

3. Fluor Corporation (FLR): Energy infrastructure construction

4. Quanta Services (PWR): High-voltage transmission network construction and grid modernization

5. Eaton Corporation (ETN): Specialized power distribution equipment for nuclear power plants and smart grid solutions

6. Emerson Electric (EMR): Digital control systems and automation upgrades for nuclear power plants

7. BWX Technologies (BWXT): Nuclear reactor component manufacturing and nuclear fuel recycling

8. Constellation Energy (CEG): Nuclear power plant management and technical services

Downstream (Nuclear Power Operators)

1. Exelon Corporation (EXC): Nuclear power plant operations

2. Duke Energy (DUK): Nuclear power generation and electricity production

3. Honeywell International (HON): Nuclear safety and monitoring technology

4. NextEra Energy (NEE): Renewable energy and traditional power generation

5. Southern Company (SO): Electricity production and supply