This Stock Dropped 47% in the Past 4 Weeks and Could Be a No-Brainer Buy During the Nasdaq Correction

Financial technology company Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST) has taken investors on quite a bumpy ride over the past year or so. After falling dramatically in the post-pandemic years, Upstart's stock price more than quadrupled from its 52-week low after three consecutive strong earnings reports.

However, it has also been one of the hardest-hit stocks in the recent downturn. As of Monday, Upstart's stock had lost 46.6% of its value since its recent high on Feb. 12 as the broader Nasdaq Composite plummeted from its own highs into correction territory.

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Here's a rundown of the latest results from Upstart's business, why the stock is beaten down, and why it could be worth a closer look right now.

Excellent business momentum

Upstart, which runs an online lending platform powered by proprietary artificial intelligence (AI), recently delivered a fantastic fourth-quarter earnings report. Revenue grew by 56% year over year, and loan volume increased by a staggering 68%, despite the difficult environment for consumer spending and persistent high interest rates. The company's net loss narrowed dramatically, and on an adjusted basis, margins improved sharply.

Perhaps more important, investor demand for loans seems to be on the rise. Upstart received $1.3 billion in new commitments from partners to purchase the loans it originates. This should allow Upstart to scale its business in line with consumer demand, and without holding an excessive amount of loans on its balance sheet.

Looking a little deeper, Upstart's conversion rate expanded to 19.3% in the fourth quarter from 11.6% a year ago. This is the percentage of loan applicants that end up actually getting a loan from Upstart, so the trend is very encouraging.

It's also worth mentioning that although virtually all of Upstart's loan volume comes from personal loans, its two newer verticals (auto loans and HELOCs) are ramping up nicely. Auto loan volume on Upstart's platform more than tripled year over year and grew 61% from the third quarter of 2024. Home equity line of credit, or HELOC, volume just started to ramp up in 2024 but grew 59% sequentially in the fourth quarter.

This is particularly exciting because these other two loan markets are much bigger than personal lending. Auto loans are a $677 billion industry in the United States. The home loan market is $1.4 trillion in size, but even that might not properly convey the opportunity here. Americans are sitting on about $35 trillion in home equity -- more than ever -- and as interest rates come down, there could be a surge in demand to tap into it.

Looking ahead, Upstart is expecting things to get even better. The company is forecasting its first billion-dollar revenue year -- something it didn't accomplish even during the pandemic-era borrowing surge fueled by low interest rates. The company is also expecting to at least break even on unadjusted net income, which it hasn't done since 2021.

Is now a second chance to buy?

I mentioned earlier that Upstart has produced a string of three better-than-expected earnings reports in a row, which has been the primary catalyst for the stock's strong performance over the past year. However, in the recent market turbulence, Upstart has fallen so much that it has essentially given back all of the gains from the past two earnings moves.

In short, Upstart's stock has been roughly cut in half from its 2025 high, although there has been no negative news about its business. While its stock isn't exactly cheap, trading at roughly 6.5 times trailing-12-month revenue, this is the stock's lowest price-to-sales multiple since October, when Upstart's business didn't have nearly as much momentum.

To be fair, the stock isn't beaten down for no reason at all. If a recession comes, it could cause loan demand to fall, and existing borrowers could have trouble paying back their debts. However, Upstart is beginning to look very attractive from a risk-reward perspective, and it could be worth a closer look if you have the risk tolerance to ride out the volatility.

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Matt Frankel has positions in Upstart and has the following options: short December 2025 $95 calls on Upstart. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Upstart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.