Social Security Prediction: This Move by President Trump Could Hurt Retirees the Most

Social Security is a lifeline for millions of people. Close to 70 million Americans will receive a Social Security check in 2025, with benefits making up nearly one-third of the income of adults over age 65, according to the Social Security Administration.

The Trump administration's slew of executive orders has affected countless Americans, including retirees and those on Social Security. Perhaps surprisingly, though, Trump's crackdown on immigration could have a direct impact on Social Security's trust funds -- and potentially result in benefit cuts for retirees down the road.

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The trust funds are faltering

Social Security benefits are funded primarily by payroll taxes. Workers pay into the system through taxes, and that money is then funneled out to current beneficiaries. But it also has two trust funds: the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) fund and the Disability Insurance (DI) fund.

In recent years, the income from taxes hasn't been enough to fully fund benefits. To cover the deficit and avoid benefit cuts, the Social Security Administration (SSA) has been pulling money from the trust funds. Once those trust funds run out, though, benefit cuts will be on the table.

According to the SSA Board of Trustees' latest estimates, both the OASI and DI funds are expected to run out by 2035. When that happens, taxes and other sources of income will only be enough to cover around 83% of scheduled benefits.

How immigration policies affect future benefits

So how does immigration play into the trust funds? Fewer workers means less money is flowing into Social Security.

Undocumented immigrants contribute around $25.7 billion per year in Social Security taxes, according to a 2024 report from the nonpartisan Institute of Taxation and Economic Policy. Without that revenue, the SSA may need to take even more money from the trust funds to continue paying benefits in full. That, in turn, could cause the funds to run out sooner than expected.

Also, a decrease in revenue overall means that once the trust funds are depleted, benefit cuts could be more severe. Right now, the SSA projects cuts of around 17% by 2035 based on current income sources. But with less money from taxes to pay out, benefits could be slashed further.

One other hiccup is Trump's vow to end federal taxes on Social Security benefits. In addition to payroll taxes, income taxes on benefits are a major source of revenue for the program. If the Trump administration follows through on this promise, it could slash Social Security's income even further and exacerbate the problem.

Potential solutions on the table

Even without Trump's immigration crackdown, Social Security was already struggling to solve its cash shortage. Lawmakers have yet to agree on a solution, and the few proposals could still impact retirees' benefits.

One of the more popular proposals is to begin taxing the wealthiest workers for Social Security purposes. Right now, only income up to $176,100 per year is subject to Social Security taxes. By taxing higher incomes as well, that would drastically increase the program's funding and allow for more money to be paid out in benefits.

Other solutions that could have a more direct impact on retirees include raising the full retirement age and reducing benefits for higher earners. Both of these proposals would reduce Social Security's expenditures, helping its income go further.

However, many of these proposals were introduced before Trump took office. It's unclear what Congress has planned for the future of Social Security, but as the clock ticks closer to 2035, it's more important than ever that lawmakers work out a solution to avoid benefit cuts.

Social Security is a complex program, and solving its cash shortage problem won't be simple -- especially if its income sources are slashed. While there may not be much retirees can do about this issue right now, staying aware of how the program is faring can help you prepare for any potential cuts that may be looming.

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