Why Carvana Stock Soared 20% After Earnings

Carvana (NYSE: CVNA) stock motored higher Thursday, its stock up 20% through 11:25 a.m. ET after beating analyst forecasts for third-quarter revenue.

Carvana reported Q3 sales of $3.66 billion last night, edging out Wall Street forecasts for $3.65 billion. The company also appears to have beaten earnings expectations.

Carvana Q3 sales and earnings

According to Yahoo! Finance data, Carvana entered Q3 with analysts expecting it to earn $0.25 per share -- a steep decline from last year's $3.60 Q3 profit. In fact, earnings did decline to about $1.26 per share, a drop of 65%, but that was still a lot better than had been feared. It was also Carvana's third straight quarterly profit. Meanwhile sales soared 32% year over year, which was even better than the analysts had hoped.

Founder and CEO Ernie Garcia praised his own work, calling it "exceptional." He also declared Carvana the "fastest-growing and most profitable automotive retailer" -- and with only a 1% share of the car-selling market, a company with plenty of room to grow.

Is Carvana stock a buy?

Speaking of future growth, Carvana was a bit vague on guidance for Q4. The company grew "units" of cars sold 34% year over year in Q3, and says unit growth will rise sequentially in Q4. While the company's 32% revenue growth in Q3 was a bit slower than unit growth, this does imply that sales will keep growing strongly in the current quarter.

I'd expect that to translate into stronger profits as well -- at least stronger than the $0.00-per-share profit that Wall Street currently predicts. The most Carvana would say on the subject, though, is that adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for the quarter will be $1 billion or better.

That being said, the company boasts strong free cash flow of $534 million over the last 12 months. Even at a price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 48, with a growth rate this strong, Carvana stock could be a buy.

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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.