The Trade Desk Is a High-Risk, But Potentially Multi-Bagger Stock -- But Only If This One Thing Goes Right

Some stocks fall because their businesses break down, while others fall because their investment story becomes harder to believe.

The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD), once a darling among growth investors, sits in the second category. The stock has dropped sharply from its highs, even though the company is still growing. That gap creates an interesting setup: Real potential upside, but only if this one key piece of the story holds.

If it does, this stock could still become a multi-bagger from here. If it doesn't, the stock may never recover.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why the upside still exists for The Trade Desk

The Trade Desk operates in a digital advertising market that continues to expand.

Advertising dollars keep shifting online thanks to multiple tailwinds, such as streaming, connected TV, and more. Besides, companies want better ways to measure whether their ads actually work.

That's where The Trade Desk fits in. It helps advertisers decide where to spend and how to improve results across multiple platforms, all via its proprietary platform. To put the opportunity into perspective, global digital advertising is worth $1 trillion (and growing).

So, the upside-down case is very simple. If more spending flows through the platform, the business can grow steadily over time.

Why the risk is real, too

However, the same trend that creates opportunity also brings competition. Companies like Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta don't just participate in advertising -- they control large parts of it. They own user data, ad space, and measurement tools, all in one place. Those closed ecosystems give them powerful advantages.

The Trade Desk takes a different approach. It sits in the middle, helping advertisers navigate across multiple platforms rather than locking them into one. More importantly, it doesn't own any inventory, so it can act purely in its customers' best interests.

While that model works -- especially for customers who value transparency and return on investment -- allocating advertising budgets to large, closed platforms like Alphabet's Google can be more convenient, easily scalable, and potentially more measurable.

That leads to the one question that matters most.

The one thing that will determine the long-term success of The Trade Desk

If we strip everything down, the investment thesis for The Trade Desk stock comes down to one simple factor: Are advertisers spending more on the platform over time -- not just staying, but increasing their budgets over time? This one trend will signal to investors whether the company remains in the digital advertising race.

If spending rises, it tells you:

• The platform delivers results.
• Advertisers see a good return on investment (ROI).
• Competition isn't taking share.

If spending slows, it tells a different story:

• Budgets may be shifting elsewhere.
• The competitive pressure is real.

Essentially, we need to track customer retention rate and gross advertising spend trends over the coming quarters to determine the direction the business is taking. If those two metrics remain strong, the stock price will eventually reflect the business model's strength.

What does this mean for investors?

The Trade Desk stock has been under enormous pressure lately as its growth rate slowed, coinciding with the rise of major competitors like Amazon.

But given the opportunity size, it will not be a winner-take-all market. At least, The Trade Desk has a valid case for coexistence with these big players, given its unique value proposition for advertisers.

From here, the investment story becomes simpler and more demanding. Just watch where advertiser dollars go. If the dollar flow toward the platform continues to grow over time, the stock could see significant upside. But if advertising spend is stagnant, no amount of optimism will turn it into a multi-bagger.

Lawrence Nga has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and The Trade Desk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.