Is Joby Aviation Stock a Buy in May? The Answer Depends On This One Thing

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) is one of the most talked-about names in flying taxis. The company is building electric aircraft designed to take off like a helicopter and fly like a plane, aiming to carry passengers across cities in minutes.

It's an exciting idea, and investors are paying enormous attention. But if you're thinking about buying the stock in May, the answer isn't straightforward. It depends on one key factor: execution.

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The opportunity is real, and potentially gigantic

Joby is chasing a large long-term opportunity, potentially reaching trillions of dollars. The idea is simple. Urban air mobility could reshape how people move in crowded cities, especially for short trips like airport transfers. Imagine turning a two-hour car ride into a 20- or 30-minute journey -- that's a huge value proposition.

As one of the leading players, the company has made real progress. Its aircraft can fly (yes, many eVTOL companies don't even have a flying vehicle yet). It has also advanced through key certification milestones and is targeting its first commercial flights in 2026, starting in markets such as Dubai.

Joby also has the backing of some major partners. For example, , Toyota Motor is one of its shareholders. This positions it well to win the race.

In short, if everything goes right, Joby could become one of the first companies to operate flying taxis at scale. That's the upside investors are betting on.

But the business is still very early in its story

Despite the progress, Joby is not yet a functioning business. The company generates little to no meaningful revenue today. Yet, it continues to spend heavily on development, certification, and manufacturing. That suggests that profitability is still years away.

To put it into perspective, the company's cash burn was around $500 million in 2025, which could increase further as it launches its services in the near future.

Hence, the investment case for Joby depends on what could happen next, not what has already happened. Even the market reflects this uncertainty, with the stock moving sharply on news about timelines or progress.

Joby is still in the very early build phase, not the earn phase.

Execution is what matters now

From here, the story comes down to execution. To this end, three things will determine whether Joby succeeds in the near future.

Certification

Joby Aviation must secure full approval from regulators -- especially in its home market, the United States -- before it can carry passengers. So far, progress is encouraging, but approval is not guaranteed, at least not until it receives the final go-ahead.

Demand

Even if flights begin in 2026, Joby still needs to prove that customers will use the service regularly and pay enough to support the business. This is one thing that investors should watch closely in 2026.

Scaling

The company must build aircraft consistently and operate safely at scale, a challenge that many aerospace programs have struggled to deliver on. Here, investors should track the company's announcements in the coming quarters.

All said, if Joby Aviation executes well across all three areas, the investment case becomes much stronger. If not, the stock could remain volatile for years.

So, is it a buy?

Joby Aviation is not a typical stock. It doesn't offer steady earnings or predictable growth. Instead, it offers exposure to a potential future industry. That makes it a speculative buy at best.

For long-term investors who can handle volatility, Joby may be worth a small position, since the upside could be meaningful if the company delivers on its plans. But for most investors, it may be better to wait. Certification clarity, early commercial flights, and initial revenue would provide stronger evidence that the business is working.

Lawrence Nga has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.