How Tesla's Latest Update Changed the Bull and Bear Case
Key Points
Tesla's EV demand is rebounding in key markets, with strong order backlogs.
The robotaxi rollout is slower than most hoped, and unsupervised FSD will require hardware upgrades for older models.
Significant capital expenditures are planned, which will affect near-term free cash flow.
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After the recent earnings report and update, the debate over Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock is only going to intensify. There was something for the bulls and the bears in the report, but, surprisingly, it undercut each side just a bit. Confused? I'll explain.
Something for everyone from Tesla's earnings report
In general, the bullish and bearish debate over Tesla has always been about what matters more: today’s numbers or tomorrow’s possibilities.
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The bears argue that Tesla is essentially a car company. They place a higher weighting on numbers now, such as electric vehicle (EV) sales and full self-driving (FSD) subscriptions, while holding fire on pricing in robotaxi or Optimus revenue until it starts to become -- or at least appear -- tangible on the horizon.
Image source: Tesla.
In contrast, the bulls watch every robotaxi rollout and Optimus development, as they see them as ultimately governing the stock's valuation over the long term. Yes, EV sales are obviously important too, but the bulls' main focus is on the timeline of the robotaxi development.
That difference in perspective often leads bears to decry the company's declining EV sales, while bulls laud the robotaxi rollout as a harbinger of super profits to come. But here's the thing: Tesla revealed better news on its EV business, while delivering some negative news on its robotaxi and other initiatives.
Tesla's improving EV business
While the first-quarter EV deliveries data were underwhelming and missed Wall Street estimates, CFO Vaibhav Taneja said: "[W]e have seen a resurgence in demand in EMEA and certain countries like France and Germany showing over 150% quarter-over-quarter growth in deliveries," and "in the U.S., we have seen a slight growth in terms of quarter-over-quarter deliveries." He then argued that Tesla had the highest order backlog in Q1 in more than two years, with rising gasoline prices positively affecting it.
Meanwhile, FSD subscriptions reported a 16.4% sequential increase and a 51% year-over-year increase, and churn declined as drivers increasingly see the benefits of autonomy.
The robotaxi rollout will take time
On the second-quarter 2025 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk famously told investors that robotaxis would probably be available to half the U.S. population by the end of the year, and unsupervised FSD would be available for "personal use by the end of this year in certain geographies."
It's April 2026, and at the time of writing, there are 13 unsupervised robotaxis in Austin and two apiece in Dallas and Houston. Meanwhile, Tesla is taking a more cautious approach to the rollout, with Musk now aiming to have robotaxis operating in a "dozen or so" states in 2026, and "guessing" that unsupervised FSD will probably be available in certain geographies in the fourth quarter.
He also confirmed that Hardware 3 models won't have the capability "to achieve unsupervised FSD" and would need conversion upgrades. This will add cost because Tesla will need to invest in facilities, as its service centers are not ideal for such work. Musk also noted that Tesla wouldn't "go to very large scale" with robotaxis when the company knows safety improvements are coming.
All this implies that there won't be a rapid deployment of robotaxis in the very near future. Investors will need to be patient.
Image source: Tesla.
A good or bad report?
On balance, this report is probably a net negative.
The positive outlook on EV sales and FSD subscriptions is a sign that Tesla retains its appeal in the EV market, and most want Tesla to succeed in its robotaxi ambitions.
Still, the cautious tone on the robotaxi rollout and ramp in expected capital expenditures to at least $25 billion in 2026, implied investment in Hardware 3 upgrades, and the need to fund Terafab are bringing forward spending, while the delayed robotaxi rollout is pushing it back.
The stock remains attractive for the obvious potential in robotaxi, but don't be surprised if there's some near-term weakness.
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Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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