1 Small‑Cap Sports‑Data Stock That Could 5X as Prediction Markets Explode

Sometimes, companies and investors ought to be careful about what they wish for. Genius Sports (NYSE: GENI) and Sportradar (NASDAQ: SRAD) are arguably good examples of that sentiment.

At their cores, Genius and Sportradar are sportsbook data providers. Still, over the years, some analysts have argued the shares should be treated more like SaaS stocks and less like traditional gaming equities. Well, the duo is getting the not-so-royal treatment as "SaaSpocalypse" fears have Sportradar down 45% year-to-date.

This battered stock could be a smart play on prediction markets sports data needs. Image source: Getty Images.

Shares of Genius are even worse for the wear as the software calamity, coupled with fears the company is overpaying for an acquisition combined to send the stock lower by more than 59% since the start of 2026. On Wall Street, there's some sentiment that Genius is a baby being thrown out with the bathwater, and that the investment community isn't fully appreciating this company's opportunity set in prediction markets.

Genius may be a smart prediction market play

For those new to Genius and Sportradar, these names aren't sports betting stocks in the traditional sense. Unlike DraftKings or Flutter Entertainment's FanDuel, Genius doesn't book bets. Rather, Genius and its rival provide the data sportsbooks need to present wagers to consumers.

That includes everything from standard pre-game wagers to higher margin fare, such as in-game wagering and parlays (multi-leg bets), including same-game parlays. That is to say, Genius and Sportradar are the picks-and-shovels players of the sports wagering universe, and that's pertinent because it indicates these companies have the experience and infrastructure needed to potentially capitalize on the prediction markets boom.

Consider the following. Last week, Bernstein issued a report that made waves, indicating volume on yes/no exchanges could swell to $1 trillion by 2030. The research firm also estimates that sports derivatives currently account for 60% of that turnover (some estimates peg that percentage far higher) and that it could fall to 30% as prediction markets' use cases expand.

Even if that happens, sports will remain big business for operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Those companies and some rivals are frequently updating their sports menus and have been venturing into "combos," or parlays, in prediction market lingo. So they need data just like DraftKings and FanDuel do. Genius has it. In fact, there are already nascent signs that market makers involved with yes/no exchanges are seeking access to Genius data.

Some prediction market wildcards

Genius and Sportradar have other inroads into the prediction market space. For example, existing sportsbook clients such as DraftKings and FanDuel are pushing into this space. That could indicate that if Genius does start generating significant revenue in this segment, it wouldn't be overly dependent on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Another issue for prospective investors to monitor as it relates to Genius is the NFL. The league, which just so happens to be one of the largest Genius shareholders, has expressed concern about prediction markets. The most popular U.S. sports league may soften that stance, maybe before the start of the 2026 season, perhaps compelling Kalshi and friends to use official NFL data.

Who's the exclusive provider of that data? That would be Genius Sports.

Todd Shriber has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Sportradar Group Ag. The Motley Fool recommends Flutter Entertainment Plc and Genius Sports and recommends the following options: short May 2026 $22.50 calls on Sportradar Group Ag. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.