Prediction: Rigetti Computing Stock Is Going to Plummet in 2026

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI), a developer of quantum computing chips and systems, went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) four years ago. Its stock started trading at $9.75, set a record high of $56.34 last October, but now trades at about $17. Let's see why Rigetti pulled back, and why it could sink even lower this year.

What does Rigetti Computing do?

Unlike classical computers, which store their data in binary bits of zeros and ones, quantum computers can store those zeros and ones simultaneously in qubits. That difference allows them to process more data and perform certain tasks faster than their classical counterparts, but they're also larger, pricier, less accurate, and consume more power. That's why they're still primarily used for niche research projects rather than mainstream computing applications.

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Newer quantum computing companies, such as Rigetti, are addressing those issues with cheaper and more scalable systems. Rigetti produces modular and non-modular quantum processing units (QPUs), installs them in its own quantum systems, and allows developers to create their own quantum algorithms on its cloud-based Quantum Computing Services (QCS) platform. By bundling its hardware and software, Rigetti is a full-stack quantum computing company that serves as a "one-stop shop" for companies investing in the nascent technology.

Why could Rigetti's stock tumble in 2026?

Rigetti's business strategy sounds promising, but it still generates most of its revenue from government and research contracts -- as well as its smaller cloud-based business -- rather than its sales of QPUs and custom quantum systems.

As of this writing, it's sold only a handful of its Novera 9-qubit QPUs, which are stand-alone, non-modular systems. It launched its 84-qubit, non-modular Ankaa QPU in 2024, but it's only used to run its cloud-based platform and internal tests. Its new Cepheus-1-36Q system, a 36-qubit system running on four modular 9-qubit chips, was built for the same purposes.

From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect Rigetti's revenue to rise from $7.1 million to $110.8 million. That outlook seems incredible, but it assumes Rigetti can ramp up its Novera shipments, scale its modular Cepheus systems, and expand QCS.

The recent launch of its 108-qubit system, Cepheus-1-108Q, and its plans to launch a 1,000+ qubit system in 2027 could support that aggressive expansion. But with a market cap of $5.6 billion, Rigetti is already valued at more than 50 times its projected 2028 sales. It's also expected to stay unprofitable for the foreseeable future, so its ongoing dilution -- which has already nearly tripled its share count since its SPAC merger -- will likely continue.

Meanwhile, Rigetti faces intense competition from other quantum computing companies using newer technologies. Rigetti, like many older quantum computing companies, uses electron-based systems that require cryogenic cooling. Newer technologies -- such as IonQ's (NYSE: IONQ) trapped ion chips and QCi's (NASDAQ: QUBT) photonic chips -- don't need to be refrigerated. IonQ's systems, which use delicate lasers to trap ions in a quantum state, can also achieve higher fidelity (error detection) rates than electron-based systems.

The macroeconomic headwinds could also prompt organizations to rein in spending on expensive quantum computing projects. They could also drive investors away from speculative stocks like Rigetti, which already have too much growth baked into their frothy valuations. That might be why its insiders sold 16 times as many shares as they bought over the past 12 months.

Could Rigetti still be a worthwhile investment?

Rigetti has a few irons in the fire, but it's too hot to handle in this wobbly market. That could set it up for a steep decline this year if it misses Wall Street's rosy estimates.

Instead of Rigetti, investors looking for better quantum plays should stick with IonQ, which has clearer plans for the future and trades at 27 times its 2028 sales, or IBM (NYSE: IBM), which is growing more slowly but has already deployed dozens of quantum systems to run trillions of programs.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends International Business Machines and IonQ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.