Is It Too Late to Buy Bitcoin?

Three months into 2026, and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is still trading near the $70,000 price level. That's almost the same price that it was trading at on Election Day 2024. If a pro-crypto, pro-Bitcoin administration can't push Bitcoin higher, then what can?

For some, this lackluster performance over the past 12 months is proof positive that it might be too late to invest in Bitcoin. Unfortunately, you missed out on Bitcoin's historic run over the past decade, and it's time to look elsewhere for investment opportunities, right?

Wrong.

Bitcoin's four-year cycle

We've seen this picture before with Bitcoin. The world's most popular cryptocurrency has never gone straight up in price. Instead, it trades in four-year cycles of boom and bust. There are typically three years of boom, followed by one year of bust.

After every period of bust, critics have been quick to declare that Bitcoin is dead. Yet each time, it has demonstrated remarkable resilience -- rebounding from adversity and reaching new highs.

Image source: Getty Images.

In the previous cycle, for example, Bitcoin hit a price of $69,000 in November 2021 before cratering in value. By the end of 2022, it was trading for just $16,000, and many gave up on it entirely.

But then the next cycle started, and the price of Bitcoin exploded. It hit $100,000 at the end of 2024, and traded as high as $126,000 last year.

If history is any guide, the cycle will repeat again. Of course, there are no guarantees here, but we've now seen several Bitcoin cycles, and each one has largely followed the same pattern. Bitcoin may dip still lower in 2026, but it will likely climb higher next year, on its way to hitting a new all-time high. In fact, some investors, including Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, think Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2030.

Institutional adoption of Bitcoin

Even after Bitcoin's disastrous 40% slide in price over the past six months, the pace of institutional adoption shows no signs of slowing. This is the best sign yet that the Bitcoin story is not yet over.

Wall Street banks and other financial institutions continue to integrate Bitcoin into the global financial system. Institutional investors continue to buy the spot Bitcoin ETFs as a way of diversifying their portfolios. Bitcoin treasury companies continue to plow their money into Bitcoin. And the White House continues to bang the table for Bitcoin.

All of this leads me to think that investors may still be early on Bitcoin. To paraphrase the great Winston Churchill, this is not the end, nor even the beginning of the end, for Bitcoin. It is, instead, only the end of the beginning.

Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.