Bitcoin Just Had Its Worst Start to a Year Ever. History Says April Could Change Everything.

Few things in investing feel quite as disorienting as watching an asset lose nearly half its value in five months while the rest of the market hums along. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has dropped 18% since the start of 2026, with its first 50 days marking the worst-ever start to a year on record, and it's also still down about 41% from its all-time high near $126,000 in October.

But Bitcoin's past features many brutal declines that later gave way to recoveries so dramatic they made the prior pain feel like a fever dream. So let's take a look at what history says is likely to come next in April, because it might just switch up the coin's recent narrative completely.

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The last five months have been very unkind to holders

Bitcoin just experienced five consecutive negative months, making for its longest losing run since 2018 through 2019, when the coin declined for six consecutive months. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) holding Bitcoin saw nearly $4 billion in net outflows across the first five weeks of the year, marking a significant reversal of the inflows that helped fuel the 2024 rally.

The macro backdrop hasn't helped one bit. Since the Oct. 10 flash crash that kicked off this big downtrend, Bitcoin (as well as other cryptocurrencies) has diverged from stocks to the downside. At the same time, gold has surged, absorbing capital that might otherwise flow into riskier investments, like cryptocurrencies. One of the coin's narratives, namely that it's a safe-haven asset akin to digital gold, now appears to be dying or dead.

What's more, with Bitcoin's next halving scheduled for 2028, there aren't necessarily many native catalysts for investors to look forward to in the near term.

What history says about what comes next

The good news is that every year that Bitcoin posted a full-year loss since 2013, the recovery afterward was sharp.

After 2014's decline, the coin rebounded 35%. After 2018, it rallied 95%. After the 2022 bear market, it surged 156%. That's an average bounce of roughly 95%.

Plus, April is historically a strong month for the coin. Of the 13 Aprils since 2013, eight have closed in the green, and on average, Bitcoin gains 13% during the month. Therefore, the worst start to a year on record might, in hindsight, turn out to have been a fine time to keep buying. In fact, I've been banking on it.

The lesson here is that most of the time, the best thing to do for your crypto portfolio is to buy Bitcoin at regular intervals, so you get the benefit of both lower prices and price appreciation on your investment. Don't let the rough start scare you off; there are likely greener pastures ahead.

Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.