Today’s Market Recap: Geopolitical Strikes and Rate Decisions Pressure Oil and Metals Markets

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TradingKey - On March 19, 2026, the S&P 500 declined 0.27% to close at 6,606 on Thursday, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.28% to finish at 22,091. 

The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and defer cuts could pose challenges for gold, which lacks the interest yield characteristic of other assets. Although gold prices surged to record highs over the past year, the recent decline amid global tensions raises questions about its status as a haven.

Gold (XAUUSD) briefly fell 6%, trading near $4,500, and silver (XAGUSD) saw an intraday plunge of 12%, although it later recovered some losses to close down 3.3% in late trading in New York. 

In London, aluminum recorded its largest single-day drop since 2018. West Texas Intermediate crude oil briefly topped $100 intraday before plummeting, ultimately falling more than 8% from its daily high, while Brent crude declined over 3%.

Within the gold mining sector, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) dropped 5.77% to $184.78, and Gold.com (GOLD) fell 4.43% to $43.97, pressured by declining bullion prices.

Micron Technology (MU), a manufacturer of DRAM, NAND flash, and SSDs, closed at $444.27, a decrease of 3.78%. This decline occurred despite the company reporting record Q2 earnings and strong Q3 guidance, as concerns over peak margins and substantial capital expenditure weighed on investor sentiment. 

Market Headline

Qatar’s LNG operations have come to a standstill following Iranian strikes on gas fields, causing European natural gas prices to surge by 35%. The attacks have severely impacted Qatar's LNG export facilities, which account for one-fifth of the global supply. With production potentially taking years to resume, natural gas prices soared during intraday trading. President Trump warned of U.S. retaliation if further attacks occur on Qatar's LNG operations. As global supplies tighten, compounded by Europe's depletion of its natural gas inventories during winter, upward pressure on prices persists.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained interest rates as expected but cautioned about the implications of rising oil prices for inflation. BoJ Governor noted that surging oil prices complicate policy evaluations and indicated that further rate hikes could occur if the economic outlook continues as anticipated.

The European Central Bank (ECB) held its interest rates steady for the sixth consecutive meeting, amid increased uncertainty in the Eurozone due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East. ECB President Lagarde emphasized that the Iran conflict poses significant inflation risks and advised caution to governments to avoid overly aggressive responses to the ongoing energy crisis.

In the U.S., initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped last week to 205,000, the lowest level recorded this year. This data suggests that companies are inclined to maintain their workforces, indicating that mass layoffs have not occurred. However, a slight rise in continuing claims hints at a modest slowdown in re-employment. Public sentiment reveals that many find job searching challenging, reflecting a cautious corporate strategy of neither hiring nor firing.

The bond market has experienced a historic shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. A hawkish stance from the Bank of England prompted a sell-off in UK government bonds, which in turn boosted U.S. Treasury yields. This upward momentum was further reinforced by Thursday’s data showing a decline in weekly jobless claims, diminishing the justification for the Fed to adopt a loose monetary policy. Consequently, market expectations for a Fed rate cut have evaporated, shifting the focus from “when will rates be cut?” to “will rates be hiked?”

Metals Market Experiences a Significant Sell-Off. Gold fell over 4%, briefly dropping below $4,600, while silver plummeted 12%. London's aluminum market recorded its sharpest single-day decline since 2018. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has heightened energy prices and inflation expectations, restricting the possibility of interest rate cuts and leading to a synchronized sell-off across precious and industrial metals. Gold has seen a consecutive seven-day decline, while silver's drastic drop and industrial metals’ significant decreases reflect broader pressures, exacerbated by capital outflows from gold ETFs and reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

Alibaba (BABA) Reports 2% YoY Revenue Growth in Q4. AI-Related Revenue Continues Triple-Digit Growth. During the conference call, it was noted that annual revenue from Cloud and AI services is projected to exceed $100 billion over the next five years, with "Model-as-a-Service" (MaaS) expected to become Alibaba Cloud's largest revenue source.

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