Can the SPDR Gold ETF Keep Climbing From Here?

Part of the reason to own exchange-traded funds is to get exposure to all the investments you want. Contrary to what many investors believe, ETFs don't just cover stocks. You can find funds that invest in a wide variety of different asset classes. And when those particular asset classes do well, interest in the ETFs that make investments in those areas tends to rise considerably.

That's been the case with SPDR Gold ETF (NYSEMKT: GLD), which has benefited greatly from the jump in gold prices over the past year. The yellow metal has been hitting successive new all-time highs, and it still trades above $5,000 per ounce. There's considerable debate, though, about whether the surge in precious metals is sustainable. If past trends bear out, then it's likely that at some point, gold's rise will run out of steam, and prices could correct lower considerably. In this final article of a three-part series for the Voyager Portfolio, you'll get a better sense of where popular opinion stands on the prospects for SPDR Gold ETF and whether it looks like a smart investment at these levels.

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The bull case for gold

Advocates for gold have a variety of different reasons for believing that the precious metal is a smart long-term investment. The most popular one lately centers on the belief that the current global financial system is resting on a foundation that's eroding, and eventually, gold will reclaim its past status as a leading recognized and accepted store of value.

The views of Ray Dalio are representative of those who are bullish on gold's prospects. Dalio points to the surging levels of sovereign debt, not just in the U.S. but among most major economic powers across the globe. Historically, this pattern has played out numerous times, with governments eventually getting to the point at which they need to issue increasingly large amounts of paper currency in order to keep their economies functioning. The resulting inflation makes asset prices surge, and demand for gold as a monetary alternative jumps. The recent return of inflationary pressures has brought gold back to investors' minds on this front.

Interestingly, much of the recent demand for gold has come from sovereign central banks themselves. In 2025, central bank buying of gold ran at nearly double the average during the 2010s. This reflects a desire even among government institutions to show greater balance-sheet strength in an effort to bolster confidence in their monetary policies and the global economic system more broadly.

The bear case for gold

Gold tends to be a popular investment when other asset classes are struggling. But when confidence returns to the stock market, gold sometimes gets left out of the investing equation. Investors saw that in the early 2010s, when gold fell back from its peak even as the stock market began a massive bull run after the turbulence from the financial crisis died down.

Indeed, as recently as late 2023, gold's long-term performance looked a lot less attractive than it does now. It took a rise of over 150% in just over two years to get gold to the point at which its long-term return history looks relatively attractive compared to the stock market.

Investors in SPDR Gold ETF also need to be aware that they're unlikely ever to receive any dividend income from their investment. Indeed, because gold doesn't generate any income, the expenses of the fund get covered only by selling off small amounts of bullion over time. Those fees eat into long-term results.

As for the Voyager Portfolio, I prefer to combine my numismatic hobby with my precious metals investing and buy physical gold coins, so I won't be adding shares of SPDR Gold. However, for those looking for an easier, more liquid way to get gold exposure, the gold ETF is a reasonable vehicle that has done a good job of tracking gold prices over time. And given the challenges facing the world right now, gold has a strong chance of being able to add to its recent gains.

Dan Caplinger has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.