TradingKey Daily Market Briefing: Oil Surges on Iran War Fears, US Stocks Fall Across the Board

Tracking Market Trends

TradingKey - On Thursday, March 12, U.S. stocks fell across the board as oil prices surged and concerns over a war with Iran intensified. S&P 500 dropped 1.52% to 6,672.62, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.78% to 22,311.98, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.56% to 46,677.86.

Oil prices climbed sharply throughout Thursday. WTI crude oil futures rose nearly 10% to close at $96.59, hitting an intraday high of $97.99. The surge was triggered by Iranian attacks on several vessels in the Persian Gulf, which the International Energy Agency (IEA) described as the largest supply disruption in history. Despite the decision by 32 IEA member states to release 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves, oil prices continued to climb.

Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, announced on Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed as a tool to pressure enemies, escalating tensions. This marked his first public statement since taking office.

These events led to sector rotation in the U.S. stock market. On Thursday, oil and defensive stocks outperformed, while tourism, technology, and consumer staples sectors declined. Impacted by concerns over fuel costs, airline stocks such as Delta Air Lines (DAL) dropped sharply; cloud computing firm Netskope (NTSK) shares plunged following the expiration of its IPO lock-up period; despite increasing its dividend, gold mining company Harmony Gold (HMY) shares still declined. Investors expect market volatility to persist until the Middle East conflict is resolved.

Market Headlines

Iran's New Leader in First Public Statement: No Retreat from Vengeance; Strait of Hormuz to Remain Closed; New Fronts to be Opened if Necessary. Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated that all U.S. military bases in the Middle East should be closed immediately or face attacks.

Iran claims to have destroyed 70% of U.S. bases and command centers in the Middle East. Iran claims to possess the capability for long-term warfare and the strength for sustained combat, wielding a new generation of advanced missile systems that have not yet been deployed. Iran launched a heavy assault on the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain, with facilities such as anti-drone systems reportedly suffering "precision strikes." Iran stated that any attack on its energy infrastructure or ports would meet a devastating counterstrike. U.S. officials said no significant casualties were reported among military personnel in Iraq.

A fire broke out on the USS Gerald R. Ford, the largest U.S. aircraft carrier involved in operations against Iran; the military stated it was unrelated to the conflict. The U.S. military stated that a fire occurred in the USS Gerald R. Ford's main laundry room and has been brought under control. Late last month, the military denied reports regarding a serious failure in the carrier's sanitation system.

U.S. Treasury Secretary says escorts will begin as soon as conditions allow; Energy Secretary says possibly this month. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that escorts have been under planning, while Energy Secretary Wright said they are likely to begin by the end of this month but are not yet ready. Trump warned Iran of unprecedented military consequences if it mines the Strait of Hormuz and fails to clear them. The U.S. military announced it sank 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels on Tuesday.

Trump's waiver to curb oil prices arrives. The Trump administration plans to issue a 30-day Jones Act waiver, allowing foreign tankers to transport fuel from the Gulf Coast and other U.S. regions to East Coast refineries, thereby clearing logistical bottlenecks in domestic fuel distribution.

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