Visa is a large payments processor, which could see earnings slump in a recession.
Even in a recession, the company's business will remain well-positioned for long-term growth.
Visa (NYSE: V) is one of the world's largest payment processors. It collects a small fee each time someone uses a Visa-branded card. No single transaction is all that important, but in 2025, the company handled 257.5 billion transactions, up 10% over 2024, so the numbers start to add up. Here's why the stock could be a buy right now if you have $1,000.
There's no way around it: if consumers aren't spending as much, Visa's transaction volume growth could slow or even fall. So the company isn't immune to adversity. However, card transactions are increasingly replacing cash transactions, and it is highly unlikely that this trend will reverse. Notably, e-commerce continues to grow, which requires increased adoption of non-cash payment methods.
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And people won't completely stop shopping, because they can't. You will continue to need food and other consumer staples necessities. So there is an underlying strength to Visa's business and a growth bias. Notably, Visa not only makes buying things easier, but it also provides security for financial transactions, which is likely to remain important for decades to come.
So there are good reasons to like Visa's stock in general. However, the reason to buy it right now is the recent roughly 15% stock price pullback. This drawdown has left Visa with a price-to-sales ratio of 16.7x, which is below its five-year average of 20.6x. The stock's price-to-earnings ratio is currently 29.8x compared to a five-year average of 33.4x. And the price-to-forward earnings ratio is 24.7x versus a five-year average of 27.3x.
To be completely fair, Visa's stock is not cheap. If you have a value bias, you probably won't be interested. However, it is relatively cheap for Visa, which should interest growth investors and, more notably, growth-at-a-reasonable-price investors (GARP). On the growth side of the equation, Visa's revenues have grown at a compound annual rate of 11% over the past decade, while earnings have risen even faster, at 14%.
It is reasonable to be worried about the impact a recession might have on Visa's business. However, if history is any guide, the impact of an economic downturn will be temporary. Meanwhile, the company's business foundation is strong, and it is biased toward long-term growth. A $1,000 investment will let you buy three shares of Visa.
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Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Visa. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.