What's Next for Bitcoin: $45,000 or $100,000?

Right now Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is priced at around $69,000 after a brutal slide of 27% over the last three months, and the crypto mood looks grim. Many market participants have been speculating that the coin is due for another big leg down, to the $45,000 range, whereas others -- perhaps aspirationally -- have been predicting a snappy return to the $100,000 level. If you're investing for the long term, these possibilities for short-term price action aren't worth fixating on, but it can still be comforting to game out the different scenarios, if only for the sake of developing an outlook for how aggressively (or cautiously) to invest.

So what's next for Bitcoin: $45,000, or $100,000? Let's map things out and get some perspective.

Image source: Getty Images.

What would it take to see $45,000?

First, some math. A fall from $69,000 to $45,000 is about 35%.

That's not inconceivable given the sour sentiment and market instability at the moment. As painful as that decline would be for holders, its scale would also be consistent with most other instances of the coin's collapse from its prior all-time highs, which, for reference, were last made in October 2025, at a price level of around $126,000. So a further decline from here is actually quite plausible, historically speaking.

But after a few months on end of uninterrupted selling off, it's likely that more downside from here would need a new bearish catalyst of some kind, as the coin has never gone down for longer than six months in a row. The initiation of a war with Iran might do the trick if it's expected to disrupt the global economy, although pessimistic macroeconomic data in the U.S. might also be enough to pound prices down in the absence of a major geopolitical flare-up.

Even so, a crash from here wouldn't impact anything driving the coin's value, like its scarcity.

Why $100,000 could be ahead

Bitcoin's supply mechanics don't care about sentiment, and they're the engine powering the coin's value upward over the long term.

The next halving, when there will forever after be half as much Bitcoin being produced with each new block mined, is coming up in early 2028, and the time is going to pass no matter what the price does. The incentive for investors is thus always to buy more of the asset now, before it gets substantially harder to produce -- and that principle applies no matter when "now" is.

Of course, that doesn't guarantee timing. It might take a few quarters for enough risk appetite to return and push the coin back toward a six-figure price.

Or, a return to the $100,000 level might happen over the next few months, if investors recognize that the abysmal sentiment of the last few months was a bit of an overreaction. In fact, at this point I think that's more likely than the coin falling to $45,000, assuming there aren't any major global or economic disruptions.

Therefore, it's acceptable to allocate a bit more to Bitcoin while it's cheap. Just appreciate that in the big picture, this price action isn't as important as your investment thesis for this asset.

Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.