The Dirty Little Secrets That Sank Ford's Q4

Source The Motley Fool

Key Points

  • Ford beat Q4 estimates on the top line, but not the bottom.

  • The Detroit automaker sees a 2026 turnaround for its financials.

  • Unexpected tariff impact, and the Novelis supplier plant fire, both weighed on results.

  • 10 stocks we like better than Ford Motor Company ›

Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) investors looking to start the year off with a bang got what they asked for, although likely not the results they wanted. Ford's $11.1 billion net loss during the fourth quarter was its worst financial performance since 2008. For the full year it was Ford's third-worst performance ever, and if you're keeping track, it's the Detroit icon's third full-year loss in the past six years. Was this just a complete disaster fourth quarter from Ford, or was there more to it?

Quick overview

Ford's fourth-quarter automotive revenue came in at $42.4 billion, topping analysts' estimates calling for $41.83 billion. The strong top line didn't filter to the bottom line, however, with Ford's adjusted earnings per share checking in at $0.13 compared to analysts' estimates of $0.19 per share.

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Ford's F-150 Lightning.

Image source: Ford Motor Company.

Despite the disappointing fourth-quarter adjusted earnings, management sees 2026 as a turnaround year for the automaker's financial results. For the full year, Ford expects adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) between $8 billion and $10 billion, an improvement from $6.8 billion last year, and for adjusted free cash flow to come in between $5 billion and $6 billion, up from $3.5 billion in 2025.

Some of the sting of the earnings miss might abate once investors hear about a dirty little secret holding the company's bottom line back during the fourth quarter.

Tariff pain pops up

Investors who thought the headlines about tariff-related pain were done with got a dose of reality with Ford's earnings report. As of Dec. 15, Ford had confirmed $7.7 billion in EBIT for the fourth quarter, but unexpected tariff costs of roughly $900 million (related to credits for auto parts not taking effect as quickly as expected) caused that figure to drop to $6.8 billion.

Another little issue that contributed to Ford's disappointing fourth quarter was the impact from fires at the Novelis aluminum supplier plant, which won't be fully operational until the middle of 2026. The plant supplies Ford's bread-and-butter F-Series pickup trucks, which are essential to Ford's profitability, and the automaker has had to take on additional tariffs to secure needed aluminum.

What it all means

Ford's fourth quarter involved a bit of bad timing with unexpected tariff costs late in 2025 and bad luck with the Novelis supplier fire. The company maintains a strong balance sheet with ample cash and liquidity and should produce better financial results in 2026 -- but investors won't wait forever for the automaker to turn excuses into improvements.

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Daniel Miller has positions in Ford Motor Company. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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