Could Nvidia Double in 6 Months? Here's What History Says.

All eyes are on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) right now. The company is a bellwether for the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, and investors are eager to know what may happen in the next chapters of this growth story. And Nvidia's fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 full-year earnings report is coming up in a few days, offering us a perfect opportunity for an update.

Meanwhile, Nvidia stock has stagnated, along with other AI and growth stocks, in recent times amid worries about economic factors -- such as the pace of interest rate cuts -- and uncertainty about the strength of AI growth. The concern is that AI companies won't reach the enormous growth expectations that some have predicted.

All of this has left Nvidia dirt cheap, trading at its lowest level in almost a year. From this bargain level, could Nvidia stock double in six months? Let's take a look at what history says.

Image source: Getty Images.

Nvidia's AI empire

First, though, let's consider the tech giant's accomplishments so far. Nvidia has constructed an AI empire over the past few years, with a portfolio of top graphics processing units (GPUs), as well as a wide variety of related tools for any stage of the AI journey. This complete and high-quality offering has helped Nvidia remain in a dominant position and bring in massive amounts of revenue.

In the last full year, the company generated more than $130 billion in revenue -- that's a 114% gain year over year. This is done at a high level of profitability, as we can see through gross margin levels, which have steadily exceeded 70%.

Demand has remained high for Nvidia GPUs -- essential chips for the most important of AI tasks -- and related products. We know this thanks to commentary from the company during earnings reports, as well as during other occasions such as trade shows and interviews. Most recently, finance chief Colette Kress said the company is on track to surpass its $500 billion forecast for sales of data center products last year and through this year.

What's happened in the past

Now, let's get back to our question and consider whether Nvidia stock could double in six months. As mentioned, the stock has seen its valuation decline in recent times, reaching 24x forward earnings estimates, its lowest level in nearly a year. History shows that last year, when Nvidia stock was this cheap, it went on to climb 90% over six months, almost doubling in that time.

NVDA data by YCharts

So, according to history, Nvidia stock could again skyrocket after reaching a rock bottom valuation. Could it do this now, as today's cheap levels attract investors to pile into the stock?

It's very possible that Nvidia stock could take off from this low point, especially following potentially positive news during the Feb. 25 earnings report or other updates in the months to come. But I wouldn't necessarily expect the shares to repeat last year's performance and double -- if they did, Nvidia's market cap would soar to about $9 trillion. Such a move in a short period of time looks unlikely.

It's important to keep in mind that it's much easier for a stock to double from lower price levels, which imply lower market value, than once it's reached higher levels. Today, Nvidia is the world's biggest company, with a market cap of about $4.5 trillion -- a move to $9 trillion would push it well above other market giants.

NVDA Market Cap data by YCharts

So, what does this mean for investors? Nvidia stock may not soar as much as it did last year over a period of six months, but it still could offer investors significant gains. And here's the best news of all: Even if Nvidia stagnates at a certain point, so far, all evidence from the company and its AI customers supports the idea of outstanding long-term growth. That means if you hold onto this AI giant for a number of years, you probably won't regret it.

Adria Cimino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.