How Accurate Are Polymarket's Bets on $150,000 Bitcoin, Really? A Long-Term Investor's Take on Short-Term Crypto Odds

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trades at less than $65,000 as of this writing. However, 15% of speculators on Polymarket expect it to reach $150,000 again by the end of 2026. Let's break down those short-term bets and see if they matter to long-term investors.

What are Polymarket's traders expecting?

Only 1% of those traders expect Bitcoin to hit $150,000 by the end of March. Another 3% expect it to reach that level by the end of June, while the remaining 11% placed their bets on Dec. 31.

Image source: Getty Images.

Bitcoin's price set a record high of more than $126,000 last October. Declining interest rates, the Trump Administration's crypto-friendly policies, institutional inflows into its spot price ETFs, and its growing acceptance as legal tender all attracted a stampede of bulls.

However, Bitcoin lost nearly half its value over the following four months. Concerns about slower interest rate cuts, stubbornly high Treasury yields, and competition from gold and stablecoins all drove investors to take some money off the table. That decline triggered leveraged liquidations, exacerbating the sell-off and keeping investors on the sidelines.

How could Bitcoin soar to $150,000?

The bulls claim Bitcoin will rise again as more investors recognize its long-term catalysts. Nearly 20 million of its tokens have already been mined, and the next four-year halving -- scheduled for 2028 -- will make it even more difficult to mine by cutting its mining rewards in half. That increasing scarcity will make it more comparable to gold, silver, and other precious metals.

The bulls believe expansionary monetary policies, which increase the money supply to boost economic activity, will reduce the value of fiat currencies over the long term. To hedge against that devaluation, more people could convert their savings to Bitcoin.

What long-term investors should remember

Bitcoin has always been a volatile investment. In 2017, it soared from $1,000 to $19,800. But by the end of 2018, it had plummeted to $3,200. By late 2021, its price had surged to $69,000 -- but plummeted to a multi-year low of about $15,500 in 2022.

In each of those crashes, it would have been smarter to either buy Bitcoin or hold it rather than sell it. I believe its recent swoon will follow the same pattern, and eventually rise above $150,000 as it runs out of sellers and new investors recognize its long-term growth potential.

That said, I think Bitcoin could struggle to hit $150,000 by the end of 2026. The murky monetary policies, tariff clashes, and other macro uncertainties could drive investors away from the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, investors should tune out the noise regarding those short-term predictions and focus on its long-term growth potential as a digital commodity.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.