AMC Entertainment Hits 83% Odds to Beat Earnings -- Is the Meme Stock Era Finally Giving Way to Real Returns?

Like sitting through 25 minutes of ads and movie trailers before getting to the featured attraction, investors had to wait to see if AMC Entertainment (NYSE: AMC) could earn rave reviews this earnings season. The country's leading multiplex operator kicked off this week by announcing its fourth-quarter results.

As the owner of one of the ugliest stock charts in recent years, you might think the expectations would be low. Shares of AMC have declined sharply for four consecutive years, tumbling 85%, 85%, 35%, and 61% since 2022, respectively. The shares have cascaded 99.8% since their frenzied peak in the summer of 2021.

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Battered shareholders are surprisingly optimistic. According to predictions marketplace Polymarket, odds of AMC stock delivering an earnings beat this week rose to 83% as of Monday morning, just before the numbers became official. The odds were barely above 50% a week ago.

Recent history was on AMC's side, at least in terms of exceeding diluted expectations. The country's largest exhibitor had beaten analyst profit targets in two of the first three quarters of 2025. The Polymarket wagers weren't a lock to move the shares higher following the report. A beat has historically never been enough for AMC stakeholders. The stock is already trading 23% lower this year, and we're not even two months into 2026.

One battle after another

Revenue clocked in at $1.288 billion for the final three months of 2025, a 1% dip from the $1.3 billion it delivered a year earlier. Its adjusted net loss for the quarter widened by 27% to $96.8 million, but that was in line with the $0.18-per-share deficit it reported a year earlier because its fully diluted share count soared 34% over the past year.

It was a beat on both ends of the income statement. It was a win for the bulls on Polymarket siding with a beat a week earlier. It doesn't mean that AMC is running victory laps.

Dilution continues to be a problem as AMC management floods the market with the new shares to finance operations. Other movie theater stocks are holding up fine. Rival Cinemark and theatrical-experience super-sizer Imax are consistently profitable and have positive five-year stock charts.

AMC can't seem to get out of its own way. There is a lot to like about the business. Quarterly revenue was down just 1% despite a 10% decrease in overall attendance. AMC is getting folks to pay more for tickets, and -- perhaps more importantly -- spend more once inside on its high-margin concession stands.

Share dilution and cost controls will need to be remedied. Free cash flow fell 71%. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) took a 31% tumble. For every good idea, like its AMC Stubs A-List membership offering or the recent AMC Popcorn Pass, there's too much money being spent on things that don't pan out and too many shares being printed on a perpetually shrinking stock price.

AMC delivered an earnings season beat, and one of the worst stocks over the past five years isn't moving higher on Monday morning? It seems as if the easier money is betting on a beat in the predictions market than on the stock itself.

Rick Munarriz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.