Rivian Shares Surged on Delivery Forecast. Is It Too Late to Buy the Stock?

Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) shares skyrocketed last week after the company projected robust vehicle deliveries for 2026 when it reported its fourth-quarter results on Feb. 12. However, even after the huge jump in share price, the stock is still trading down about 15% year to date, as of this writing.

Let's dig into the electric vehicle (EV) maker's results and prospects to see whether or not it's too late to buy the stock.

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Rivian management offers strong guidance

The catalyst for the jump in Rivian stock was management guiding that the company would deliver between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles this year, propelled by the introduction of its new, lower-priced R2 SUV. That's a big jump from the 42,247 vehicles it delivered last year and the 51,579 it sold in 2024.

The R2 will be priced around $50,000 and is expected to appeal to a much wider audience than the R1, which can cost upward of $100,000 for some variations. It will start production of the R2 with a single production shift, with plans to add a second shift toward the end of the year and a third shift in 2027.

In Rivian's Q4, revenue fell by 26% year over year to $1.3 billion as the company produced and delivered fewer vehicles while it readied to begin production of the R2. The company produced 10,974 vehicles and delivered 9,745 in the quarter, compared to 12,277 vehicles produced and 14,183 delivered a year ago.

Automobile revenue sank by 45% year over year to $839 billion, while software and service revenue more than doubled from $214 million to $447 million. About 60% of its software and service revenue came from its joint venture with Volkswagen.

Given the strength of its high-margin software business, Rivian was able attain a 9% gross margin, recording a gross profit of $120 million. Rivian expects 2026 to be a transitional year for its automotive gross margin as it ramps up R2 product, but has a goal of 20% auto gross margin in 2027 and overall company gross margin above 25%.

Its adjusted EBITDA loss widened from $277 million a year earlier to $435 million. Meanwhile, it had free cash outflows of $1.14 billion in the quarter, compared to a positive free cash flow of $856 million a year ago.

Looking ahead, the company projected it would record between $2.1 billion and $1.8 billion in negative adjusted EBITDA, while spending between $1.95 billion and $2.05 billion in capital expenditures (capex). That means it will continue to burn through a nice chunk of cash this year.

Is it too late to buy Rivian stock?

Rivian is still very much a speculative stock at this point, and 2026 is set to be another transitional year. However, the launch of the R2 should be a nice catalyst, and with a gradual ramp-up, could set the stage for a strong 2027. As such, risk-tolerant investors could consider adding a small position here. Even after the post-earnings run-up, this is not a stock for the faint of heart.

Geoffrey Seiler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Volkswagen Ag. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.