Will Plug Power Stock Double in Price to $4 Per Share in 2026?

Plug Power (NASDAQ: PLUG) has long been a volatile stock. The company's main revenue generator -- the design and manufacture of hydrogen fuel cell systems -- has historically been an up-and-down business. Some years, hype for this clean energy technology has been rampant. In other years, the financial reality of hydrogen fuel cell systems becomes a drag on the stock price.

Late last year, Plug Power stock soared from roughly $2 per share to more than $4 per share. With the stock price back at about $2, could another dramatic rise be around the corner in 2026? Another price spike is very possible, but a few catalysts will need to line up.

Plug Power will face financial difficulties in 2026

Before we get to any potential catalysts in 2026, it's important that investors understand the reality of Plug Power's business model right now. Around the world, hydrogen fuel cell systems largely remain economically unviable versus conventional systems.

Airplanes, for example, are a wonderful use case for hydrogen fuel. Hydrogen fuel cells can replicate the energy density required for air travel. And the fact that planes almost always land and take off in regular locations (i.e., airports) makes it easy to co-locate hydrogen storage and transfer infrastructure. In theory, we could transition the entire airline industry over to a relatively clean-burning fuel source over the next few years. There's just one problem: Conventional fossil fuels remain far more cost-effective than hydrogen-based fuels.

This reality is consistent across nearly every other industry and end market. At the end of the day, experts don't expect hydrogen fuel to be cost-competitive for years, if not decades to come. Until then, Plug Power will remain dependent on experimental pilot projects and government subsidies to stay afloat. Even then, expect heavy losses. The company has rarely posted a profit over its multi-decade history. Even gross margins have rarely turned positive.

If Plug Power stock is going to soar this year, it will likely be related to a single type of catalyst.

Image source: Getty Images.

Here's how Plug Power stock can rise 100% this year

This year, hydrogen companies like Plug Power will largely be on the lookout for one thing: government assistance. Whether that assistance comes in the form of a subsidized loan, military contract, or a heavy tax on competing fuel sources like oil and gas, very few other catalysts will be strong enough over the short term to buoy their stock prices.

Why did Plug Power surge last year? For a few reasons, all of which deal with the market regaining temporary enthusiasm for an otherwise struggling business. In late 2025, Plug Power delivered the first 10 electrolyzer units to a customer. It also secured deals with customers in Uzbekistan and Nevada.

Perhaps more encouragingly, the company announced that it would be replacing its longtime chief executive officer. Jose Luis Crespo, who joined the company in 2014, will replace Andy Marsh as the CEO next month. Marsh has been the CEO since 2008. Since he took that position, Plug Power stock has lost more than 90% of its value.

Could Plug Power stock pop off another slew of news announcements like this? Absolutely. Small, volatile stocks like this can go up or down dramatically at a moment's notice. But as the last pop proved, these movements will always be short-lived unless the company can gain real traction in its core business. As of right now, real traction will likely require enormous government assistance in one form or another.

To be sure, Plug Power is a very compelling business. I am fascinated to see how the industry evolves during the coming years and decades. It's likely that, far down the road, hydrogen will have some sort of place in the renewable energy economy. But as an investment, I'm staying far away. The share dilution necessary to keep a money-losing business like this afloat will almost certainly wipe out any long-term growth potential this business may have for individual investors.

Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.