Can XRP (Ripple) Reach $4 in 2026?

Throughout 2025, crypto investors have been expecting XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) to soar in value. Yet, with just weeks to go until the end of the year, the price of XRP sits at a very pedestrian $2. Even worse, XRP is now down 7% for the year, and is no longer outperforming Bitcoin.

So what can investors expect from XRP in 2026? Will XRP recover and hit a new all-time high of $4? Or will it continue to languish in price? Let's take a closer look.

XRP is "spiky"

The first thing you need to know about XRP is that it's "spiky." In other words, investors should not expect a slow, gradual appreciation in price for XRP. Instead, they should expect occasional "spikes" in price, driven by significant changes in investor sentiment.

If you zoom out and take a look at XRP's price action over the past decade, this immediately becomes clear.

There was a dramatic spike upward in value in 2018, when XRP reached its all-time high of $3.84. There was a smaller, less dramatic spike in 2020-21, when the entire crypto market was rallying. And there was a brief explosive spike upward in late 2024 and early 2025, amid all the pro-crypto euphoria of the new Trump administration.

So the best-case scenario for XRP investors is another massive spike upward in 2026, due to the appearance of a new catalyst on the horizon. If the catalyst is big enough, it might be enough for XRP to double in price, from $2 to $4.

Possible catalysts for XRP in 2026

The second thing you need to know about XRP is that the hype, buzz, and speculation surrounding this cryptocurrency often far outpaces reality.

For example, take the new catalyst everyone is buzzing about right now: the recent launch of the first spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in November. This launch was supposed to be a landmark breakthrough for XRP, propelling it to new heights.

While nearly $1 billion has flowed into these ETFs, the actual impact on the price of XRP has been nothing to write home about. Over the past 30 days, XRP is actually down 15%. By way of comparison, Bitcoin is down 10% over this time period.

Image source: Getty Images.

Heading into 2025, another much-talked about catalyst was the possible addition of XRP to the list of strategic cryptocurrency assets held by the U.S. government. While the Treasury Department did eventually create a Digital Asset Stockpile in March, the amount of XRP added to this stockpile was minimal.

Currently, the U.S. Treasury has no plans to designate XRP a strategic asset for long-term accumulation, despite repeated calls by Ripple (the company behind the XRP token) to do so. So, again, what was supposed to be a real game changer for XRP turned out to be just a lot of hype and speculation.

At the same time, plans to make the XRP blockchain ledger part of the SWIFT payment network for cross-border bank transfers now appear to be floundering. Earlier this year, SWIFT conducted trials of the XRP blockchain ledger. But it eventually decided to go with other blockchains instead. So all the hype and buzz about XRP somehow replacing SWIFT one day could soon be over.

What do online prediction markets think?

One clue about XRP's potential price trajectory in 2026 comes from online prediction markets. According to traders, XRP only has a 3% chance of hitting the $4 mark by the start of 2026, and a 31% chance of hitting the $4 mark by the start of 2027.

Admittedly, 1-in-3 odds are not bad. A lot of that optimism, though, is predicated on a belief that Bitcoin will turn things around and skyrocket in value in 2026.

Since XRP is highly correlated with the price of Bitcoin, the thinking goes, it should be able to soar in value as well. XRP has a 0.71 correlation with Bitcoin over the most recent 12-month period. That's remarkably high, and almost as high as the 0.76 correlation that Ethereum has with Bitcoin. This suggests that XRP might indeed be able to keep pace with Bitcoin.

Should you buy XRP in 2026?

Certainly, XRP has the potential to increase in price in 2026. But it's not so clear that it can double in value to hit a price of $4. For that to happen, Bitcoin would also need to double in value, taking the entire market higher.

For XRP to skyrocket in value next year, it will likely require the arrival of an entirely new catalyst. Until that new catalyst arrives, I'm looking elsewhere for high-risk, high-upside cryptocurrencies.

Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.