Why Investors Will Be Watching This California-Based Company Closely in 2026

If you have ever sat in gridlock watching your GPS insist that the next half-mile stretch of highway will take about 30 minutes to drive through, you already understand the pitch for flying taxis.

But, to be more explicit, picture yourself above that trafficked road entirely, flying in a quiet electric aircraft that takes you directly to wherever you're trying to go. That, in a nutshell, is what Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) is trying to build.

A growing number of cities and airlines seem at least willing to experiment with this idea. Miami, Los Angeles, and Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates are all working with Archer to see if it can move its idea of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) craft into an everyday reality.

On that front, 2026 could be a breakout year for Archer, or it could be a letdown.

The story of Archer through 2025

Archer is developing an eVTOL aircraft that's designed to operate short hops in and around congested cities, especially between urban hubs and airports. Its flagship craft, the Midnight, is a piloted four-passenger eVTOL with targeted trips between 20 and 50 miles and top speeds of 150 miles per hour.

An Archer eVTOL. Image source: Archer Aviation.

Over the years, the company has stacked up a set of heavyweight partners. United Airlines was one of its first major corporate friends and has ordered hundreds of aircraft, with plans to deploy them in dense urban hubs like New York City. The automaker Stellantis has also partnered with Archer and plans to help it scale up its Midnight production.

Meanwhile, Korean Air has signed a memorandum of understanding to possibly use Archer aircraft for South Korea's urban mobility programs, while Saudi Arabia is working with the company to launch its services in the kingdom.

Archer has also been named the official air taxi provider for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic Games and is buying the municipal airport in Hawthorne, California, to use as both a Los Angeles hub and test site for artificial intelligence technology.

Archer 2026: Tailwinds (and turbulence)

Clearly, Archer sits at the center of some powerful trends. Traffic congestion in the U.S. is getting worse, with the average commuter losing about 63 hours a year to traffic and roughly $1,480 in extra congestion costs. Cities are under pressure to reduce traffic and cut emissions, both of which Archer's aircraft seem capable of alleviating in some degree.

At the same time, let's not forget where Archer is as a business. It may have high-flying ideas, but it doesn't yet have commercial revenue, nor regulatory approval to fly Midnight aircraft with paying passengers. It's burning cash, and although it has a multibillion-dollar indicative order backlog, it won't be able to tap into it until it secures Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification.

A lot hinges on its progress toward obtaining certification from the FAA. On that front, its rival, Joby Aviation, is farther along in the process, although both companies' participation in the White House's eVTOL pilot program could accelerate the timeline to approval for both.

Should investors buy Archer before 2026?

At today's price of about $8.50 a share, Archer stock trades below its initial public offering price of about $9.90. The company's market value is about $5.5 billion, which is high for a start-up with no revenue.

The flip side is that Archer is going into 2026 with some real tailwinds. It's building networks in urban markets whose local leaders are struggling to contain rampant congestion. It has major partners, both domestically and internationally. And it has a hefty cash position, with about $1.64 billion in cash and equivalents on its third-quarter balance sheet . That should give it several years to continue funding certification and an early network build-out.

For investors who can tolerate volatility, a small position in Archer could prove beneficial in the long term. For those who would rather not stomach the ups and downs of a start-up in a new market, this one might be better left on a watch list.

Steven Porrello has positions in Joby Aviation. The Motley Fool recommends Stellantis. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.