Don't Buy Rigetti Computing Stock Until This Happens

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) poses a dilemma for investors.

On the one hand, Rigetti is one of the most popular quantum computing stocks on the planet. As a "pioneer in full-stack quantum computing," Rigetti says it's been not just developing, but actually operating quantum computers "since 2017," and selling "on-premises quantum computing systems with qubit counts between 24 and 84 qubits" since 2021.

Rigetti's a real business, with real revenue.

It's just not a business with a lot of revenue.

Image source: Getty Images.

Rigetti math

Rigetti did $10.8 million in revenue in 2024, but year to date, it's booked less than half that in 2025 -- just $5.2 million.

No matter. In October, Rigetti announced the sale of two 9-qubit Novera quantum computing systems to, respectively, an "Asian technology manufacturing company" and a "California-based applied physics and artificial intelligence start-up." In total, the two sales should bring in $5.7 million.

The problem is, Rigetti doesn't expect to book those revenues until H1 2026, and the company hasn't announced any other sales since the October news. That kind of makes it sound like the company won't be making much more than the $5.2 million that it's already got this year. (It also makes it sound like 2026 might not be much better.)

Contrary to what you might expect from a growth stock, Rigetti's sales over the last 12 months are down 43% from 2022 levels. Over the same period of time, Rigetti's annual losses have quintupled, to more than $350 million. Wall Street analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence don't see any chance of Rigetti turning profitable through 2030 at the earliest -- 2030 being as far out as anyone's willing to make forecasts for this profitless quantum computing stock.

What could make Rigetti rise?

So is Rigetti stock entirely without hope as an investment?

Not entirely, no. Indeed, as I pointed out last week, institutional investors ranging from American Assets Investment Management to the Vanguard Group to BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) have begun taking stakes in Rigetti precisely because they expect it to succeed. At last report, these three companies combined to own nearly 20% of Rigetti's shares outstanding.

So why do they believe in Rigetti -- and what might it take to make you believe in this quantum stock, too?

If you look back just a bit further, you'll notice that Rigetti nearly quadrupled its annual sales between 2020 and 2022. That was the high point for its sales -- the point from which Rigetti has sunk so low today. But it also demonstrated the potential for Rigetti to perform as a growth stock when things go right.

What would it take for me to believe in Rigetti again? Well, a reversal of the sales slide and a return to rapid growth would certainly help. If Rigetti manages to land another big sale this month, and halt the slide in annual sales -- if Rigetti books even more sales in 2026, on top of the two holdovers from October's announcement -- this might go a way toward restoring faith in Rigetti's growth potential.

But until Rigetti does prove it can start growing again, I'm afraid the stock remains a sell for me.

Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends BlackRock. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.