Are TSCO Stock Investors Happy, or Did They Get Burned?

Source The Motley Fool

Key Points

  • The recent retail stock slump has hit Tractor Supply Co. stock.

  • Its one-year returns are actually negative.

  • The picture gradually improves the further back you go.

  • These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires ›

Rural lifestyle retailer Tractor Supply Co. (NASDAQ: TSCO) has been one of the big retail success stories of the 21st century. It's grown its revenue from $1 billion in 2002 to $14.9 billion in 2025, and has grown from 433 stores to 2,364 stores during that time.

The business has certainly been thriving, but what about the company's stock price? How have shareholders fared over the last one, three, and five years? The answer may surprise you.

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A frowning person in a plaid shirt sitting at a kitchen table.

Image source: Getty Images.

One year: Crop failure

Tractor Supply's stock is worth 3.5% less than it was a year ago, even though the overall stock market as measured by the S&P 500 is up 13.3% over that time. The company has been one of a number of retailers whose share prices have sagged this fall, as concerns about persistent inflation and tariffs have encouraged investors to shift their focus to discount retailers or to pull their money out of the retail sector entirely.

However, one year is a very short timeframe for investment. The Motley Fool generally recommends holding an investment for at least three to five years. Has Tractor Supply done better in the medium term?

Three years: A meager harvest

Over the last three years, Tractor Supply Co. stock has appreciated 20.4% -- not too shabby! When you factor in reinvestment of the company's dividend, which currently yields 1.7%, the performance is even better, with shares up 23.8%.

Unfortunately, even though investors who bought shares in November 2022 have made money, they've lost out badly to the market. The S&P 500 has returned 68% over the last three years, or 73.9% when reinvested dividends are factored in, meaning Tractor Supply Co. is losing to the market by a jaw-dropping 50 percentage points over the last three years.

Will an additional two years improve this bleak picture?

Five years: Green pastures

What a difference two years makes!

Not only is Tractor Supply's five-year return of 102.9% remarkably better than its three-year return of 20.4%, it even beats the S&P 500's 86.1% return by almost 17 percentage points! When you add dividends to the picture, Tractor Supply's return gets even better at 114.7%, and it still bests the S&P 500's dividend-adjusted returns by 106.2%.

That said, Tractor Supply's 10-year returns lose badly to the market on both an absolute and total-return basis. But once you go back 15 years, to 2010 and beyond, Tractor Supply's returns crush the market. Investors who bought in November 2010 and held onto their positions have seen a 1,460% dividend-adjusted total return, compared with the S&P 500's 650% return. The further back you go, the better your returns are.

Tractor Supply Co. is a great example of the benefits of buying quality growth stocks and holding them over the long term.

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John Bromels has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tractor Supply. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: short January 2026 $58 calls on Tractor Supply. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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