Samsung Set for 10 Trillion Won Q3 Profit as AI Demand Sparks Memory Price Rally

TradingKey - Global memory chip leader Samsung Electronics will announce its preliminary third-quarter 2025 results on Tuesday, October 14, with high market expectations. Analysts predict that thanks to strong recovery in server demand driven by customer inventory rebuilding and the resulting significant rise in memory chip prices, Samsung Electronics is poised to achieve its highest third-quarter profit since 2022.

According to LSEG SmartEstimate, which aggregates forecasts from 31 analysts while giving more weight to those with better historical accuracy, Samsung Electronics' operating profit for the July-September period is expected to reach 10.1 trillion won (approximately $7.11 billion), representing a 10% increase compared to the same period last year.

For comparison, Samsung's operating profit in Q2 was only 4.7 trillion won, primarily due to declining memory prices and losses in its foundry business.

The core driver of this profit growth is undoubtedly Samsung's semiconductor business, with memory chips contributing most significantly. Earlier this year, DDR4 memory chip prices began rising, and Samsung officially issued price adjustment notices in September, directly boosting profits.

According to TrendForce data, in the third quarter, prices of DRAM chips widely used in servers, smartphones, and personal computers surged 171.8% year-on-year.

The market generally expects the memory price increase trend to have just begun, with industry expectations pointing to at least continued price hikes through the first half of 2026. During this period, memory chips are expected to remain in short supply with rising prices, and even in the second half of 2026, prices are expected to stabilize at high levels rather than experiencing significant declines.

This means that Samsung Electronics' quarterly profits exceeding 10 trillion won is highly probable throughout the next year's performance cycle. In addition to conventional DDR and LPDDR memory products, Samsung's HBM3e and subsequent HBM4 memory will gradually increase production capacity and expand supply, expected to become another major engine for profit growth.

Morgan Stanley recently raised Samsung's target price by 14% to 111,000 won, explicitly noting that memory prices will accelerate their rise in the fourth quarter and that strong demand cycles will continue throughout 2026.

This shift in market confidence has already reflected in stock performance — Samsung Electronics closed at a record high last Friday.

“Samsung’s finally having its AI moment,” commented Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital LP. “What’s interesting is this rally isn’t just about chips, it’s about belief because investors have decided Samsung’s not missing this wave like it did early on, and now seems like everyone’s racing to reprice the gap.”