Here's Precisely How Much Social Security's 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Is Projected to Raise Benefits

Key Points

• The most anticipated announcement of the year for Social Security's more than 70 million recipients will occur on Oct. 15.

• Independent estimates suggest this will be the fifth consecutive year with an above-average COLA.

• Despite a forecast of history being made, the value of a Social Security dollar simply isn't what it used to be.

• The $23,760 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook ›

The biggest announcement of the year for Social Security's more than 70 million beneficiaries is rapidly approaching. In a little over two weeks, on Oct. 15, the Social Security Administration (SSA) will lift the hood on the much-anticipated 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) and provide beneficiaries with an answer to their most-asked question: How much will I receive each month in 2026?

This is an especially important reveal for aging workers, who, based on 24 years of annual surveys from Gallup, rely on their Social Security check to cover some portion of their expenses.

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While Social Security's 2026 "raise" is set to make history for the first time in the 21st century, it's still likely to come up short for a majority of the program's recipients.

Image source: Getty Images.

Here's how Social Security's all-important COLA is calculated

The purpose of Social Security's cost-of-living adjustment is to act as a shield against inflation. For example, if the cost of goods and services regularly purchased by seniors rises from one year to the next, Social Security benefits would need to climb by the same percentage to avoid a loss of purchasing power. Social Security's COLA is the SSA's tool that helps recipients counteract the effects of inflation.

For the first 35 years of the program's payout history (1940-1974), there wasn't any rhyme or reason to adjusting benefits. Only 11 COLAs were passed along via special sessions of Congress, including the largest-ever adjustment of 77% in 1950.

Beginning in 1975, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) became the program's inflationary measure that allowed for annual COLAs. This index possesses north of 200 spending categories, each of which has its own unique percentage weightings. These weightings allow the CPI-W to be reported as a single figure each month, which can be used to determine if prices are, collectively, rising (inflation) or falling (deflation) on a year-over-year basis.

Here's the catch with Social Security's COLA: only third-quarter CPI-W readings (from July through September) factor into the calculation. Once the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the September inflation data on Oct. 15, the SSA will have the final puzzle piece needed to announce the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment.

If the average third-quarter CPI-W reading increases in the current year from the comparable period last year, the percentage difference between these average third-quarter readings, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, equates to the raise beneficiaries will receive.

An uptick in the prevailing rate of inflation sent COLAs soaring in recent years. US Inflation Rate data by YCharts.

Here's precisely how much Social Security's COLA is expected to boost benefits in 2026

Since Social Security's cost-of-living adjustments are meant to be reflective of the inflationary pressures beneficiaries are contending with, the last few years have resulted in above-average raises for recipients.

A historic year-over-year increase in U.S. money supply during the COVID-19 pandemic was followed not long thereafter by the fastest rate of inflation in four decades. The end result is that Social Security checks rose by 5.9% in 2022, 8.7% in 2023 (the biggest percentage increase since 1982), 3.2% in 2024, and 2.5% in 2025. For the sake of comparison, the average COLA since 2010 is 2.3%.

From 1988 through 1997, Social Security's COLA vacillated between 2.6% and 5.4%. If the 2026 COLA comes in at 2.5% or higher, it would mark the first time this century -- and in 29 years overall -- that COLAs met or topped 2.5% for five straight years. On a nominal-dollar basis, Social Security recipients enjoy seeing their monthly payouts meaningfully grow.

Following the release of the August inflation report from the BLS, nonpartisan senior advocacy group The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) is calling for a 2.7% cost-of-living adjustment next year. Meanwhile, independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson settled on a 2.8% raise in 2026.

Assuming the lower of the two forecasts (a 2.7% COLA) proves accurate, here's how average monthly benefits would be impacted in 2026 for Social Security's three primary classes of recipients:

• Retired workers: With the average monthly check for retired workers surpassing $2,000 for the first time in the program's history in May, the typical retiree can expect their monthly payout to rise by $54.22 in 2026 to almost $2,063.
• Workers with disabilities: For the more than 7 million workers with a long-term disability, their average monthly payout is projected to climb by $42.73 next year, based on a 2.7% COLA, to approximately $1,626.
• Survivor beneficiaries: For the roughly 5.8 million survivors of deceased workers, the average monthly check in 2026 would increase by $42.53 to nearly $1,618.

Image source: Getty Images.

Most beneficiaries won't enjoy the full impact of their 2026 raise

Although a 2.7% or 2.8% COLA would continue a five-year trend of raises being above average, the uncomfortable truth is that most beneficiaries will see some or all of their 2026 adjustment gobbled up by other expenses.

For instance, the 2025 Medicare Trustees Report, which was published in mid-June, points to an expected double-digit percentage increase in the Part B premium next year. Part B is the segment of Medicare responsible for outpatient services, and this premium is usually deducted from the monthly benefit of dual enrollees (Social Security and traditional Medicare).

In 2023 and 2024, Medicare's Part B premium rose by 5.9% each year. Based on the newest forecast, Part B is projected to climb by 11.5% to $206.20/month in 2026. This increase is going to partially or fully offset the 2026 COLA for a significant percentage of retired-worker beneficiaries.

What's more, the buying power of a Social Security dollar has been on a precipitous decline since this century began.

Though the CPI-W is a vast improvement over the random adjustments passed along by special sessions of Congress prior to 1975, it still has inherent flaws. Specifically, the CPI-W tracks the costs that matter to "urban wage earners and clerical workers," who are typically working-age Americans not currently receiving a Social Security payout.

Tracking the inflationary headwinds for working-age Americans is problematic, given that 87% of Social Security beneficiaries are aged 62 and above. The most important expenses for seniors, such as shelter and medical care services, simply aren't being given the necessary weighting to reflect their impact on the pocketbooks of retirees. The end result, based on a TSCL analysis, is a 20% loss of buying power for aged Social Security beneficiaries since 2010.

Even with a fifth superior raise in a row, the 2026 COLA is incredibly likely to come up short for most beneficiaries.

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