Prediction: Alphabet Stock Could Soar to This Price by 2030

Key Points

• Alphabet's heavy AI spending is translating into steady double-digit growth.

• A simple model forecasts Alphabet's stock price to be substantially higher in 2030.

• Cloud margin expansion and ongoing buybacks could provide upside, while massive capex and regulatory risks remain key risks.

• 10 stocks we like better than Alphabet ›

Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL)(NASDAQ: GOOG) shares have seen-sawed this year as investors weigh the cost of an artificial intelligence (AI) build-out against strong fundamentals. The parent of Google, YouTube, and Google Cloud is pouring money into data centers and custom silicon. Meanwhile, financial results have been impressive. That combination -- aggressive investment plus resilient performance -- sets the stage for a clear, fundamentals-driven 2030 price forecast for the stock.

The core idea here is simple. If revenue compounds about 12% annually over the next five years and operating margin stays roughly where it is today, then earnings per share should grow in line with revenue. Hold the valuation at a 25 price-to-earnings ratio, and you can back into a reasonable 2030 target.

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Image source: Getty Images.

Cloud and AI-fueled momentum

Alphabet's recent business momentum has been impressive. In the second quarter of 2025, the company's revenue rose 14% to $96.4 billion, and its operating margin was 32.4%. The star of the quarter was its cloud computing business, Google Cloud, which continued to scale well. The important segment's revenue rose 32% to $13.6 billion and its operating income expanded to $2.8 billion (up from $1.2 billion in the year-ago quarter) -- evidence that AI-related infrastructure and cloud computing infrastructure and software demand is showing up in the P&L.

Capital intensity is the other pillar of the story. Purchases of property and equipment during Q2 were $22.4 billion in the quarter as Alphabet raised its 2025 capital spending plan to about $85 billion. This is some big spending, but it's arguably what helps lock in double-digit annualized revenue growth over the next five years.

Importantly, the company still managed to return capital to shareholders, repurchasing $13.6 billion of stock in the quarter. In addition, Alphabet continues paying a quarterly dividend of $0.21 after a 5% raise earlier this year.

In the company's second-quarter earnings release, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai captured the broader theme succinctly: "AI is positively impacting every part of the business, driving strong momentum."

The path to $415

To anchor the model in up-to-date numbers, start with diluted earnings per share over the most recent four quarters: $2.12 (third quarter of 2024), $2.15 (fourth quarter of 2024), $2.81 (first quarter of 2025), and $2.31 (second quarter of 2025). That sums to roughly $9.39 in trailing-12-month earnings per share. If revenue grows 12% a year for five years and operating margin holds steady, earnings per share should compound at a similar rate, landing near $16.5 by 2030. Apply a 25 price-to-earnings ratio, and you get a 2030 share price around $415. From recent levels, that implies high-single-digit to low-double-digit annualized returns before dividends over the next five years.

There are caveats. Other income boosted results recently -- investment gains added about $0.85 to earnings per share across the last four quarters -- and that line item can swing. Additionally, depreciation will also climb as today's elevated capital spending flows through the income statement, which can weigh on margins. But buybacks and ongoing cloud margin expansion could provide a nice positive offset to these headwinds. Of course, there are risks to this model's growth forecast. Investors should keep an eye on traffic acquisition costs and regulatory matters that can affect search economics, as well as increasing competition and increasing overlap with generative AI players.

Overall, however, I believe this forecast is fairly conservative: steady double-digit top-line growth, a stable low-30s operating margin, and a mid-20s price-to-earnings ratio support a 2030 price near $415. That outcome depends on Alphabet executing its AI roadmap while balancing high investment with discipline, but the latest numbers suggest the company is on that path.

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Daniel Sparks and his clients have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.