Will iPhone 17 Spark a New Upgrade Cycle? The Baseline iPhone Excites, But the Air Could Flop

TradingKey - After Apple’s 2025 fall launch event, Apple’s stock (AAPL) turned from gains to losses, as investors once again expressed dissatisfaction with what they saw as a lack of major innovation from the world’s top tech innovator. Analysts’ reviews suggest that the upgraded base iPhone 17 could drive a wave of upgrades, while the “flagship” Air faces uncertain prospects.

On September 9, Apple unveiled four new iPhones, three Apple Watch models, and a new pair of headphones. When the AirPods Pro 3 was first announced, Apple’s stock rebounded from an early 1% drop to a 0.24% gain. However, the stock plummeted after the iPhone launch, closing down 1.48%, even as the Nasdaq Composite hit a new all-time high that day.

Apple Stock on 2025 September Event, Source: TradingKey

Similar to past events, market sentiment on this year’s launch is that there were no groundbreaking technological upgrades or bold innovations, especially for the iPhone 17 Air, the ultra-thin flagship that Apple heavily promoted.

Will the Air Be Popular?

Echoing pre-launch commentary from tech insiders, Wall Street Journal reporter Nicole Nguyen said the new ultra-thin iPhone Air is an engineering and design marvel, but not the right upgrade for most users. Apple described it as the thinnest iPhone ever made.

Nguyen noted that the Air’s sleek design comes at the cost of features consumers care about:

• Single rear camera
• Only 2x optical zoom
• Shortest battery life among all new iPhone models
• Starting price $100 higher than the iPhone 16 Plus it replaces

Battery life and camera performance are major concerns. Some even argue that besides its thinness, the Air has nothing going for it. 

With a battery capacity under 3,000 mAh, Apple recommends purchasing a magnetic external battery pack. Tech bloggers question whether software algorithms can truly compensate for the hardware limitations of a single 48MP camera.

Is thinness really that important? Counterpoint Research believes Apple’s ultra-thin strategy is aimed at direct competition with Huawei in China, with only one missing piece: a foldable iPhone — expected in 2026.

Fortunately, fears that the eSIM-only Air would be excluded from the Chinese market did not materialize. China Unicom offers eSIM services, and China Telecom is rolling it out.

Apple claims the $999 starting price for the iPhone Air will encourage upgrades. However, given Samsung’s poor sales of its ultra-thin Galaxy S25 Edge — launched in May — and its subsequent sharp production cuts, Apple’s thinness-focused strategy still faces challenges.

JPMorgan noted that despite its new design, the Air’s features appear “poor value” for $999, and the model is unlikely to meet optimistic sales expectations.

The Base Model Steals the Spotlight

The base iPhone 17, which received little pre-launch attention, may actually become the key driver of Apple’s sales. All iPhone 17 models now feature:

• 24MP front camera
• Center Stage video calling feature
• 120Hz ProMotion dynamic refresh rate display

Li Jie, President of OnePlus China (a brand under Oppo), posted:

“Welcome Apple to the full ‘high-refresh era.’ High refresh rates are truly ‘once you go high, you never go back’ — one of the most important smartphone experience upgrades in the past decade.”

Nguyen added that once users experience the smooth 120Hz ProMotion display, it’s hard to go back — a major upgrade for users switching from older models.

Moreover, the base iPhone 17 starts at $799 — unchanged from previous years — but now comes with double the storage: 256GB. Amid the global tariff war, Apple’s pricing strategy has been well received.

International Data Corporation noted that keeping prices stable is a significant strategic move, signaling that Apple understands the current sensitivity of the global economy and is sending a strong message that it recognizes consumer pressure.

Jefferies and JPMorgan analysts also highlighted that the base model’s price point qualifies it for China’s smartphone subsidy program, helping Apple extend its recent recovery in the mainland market.

Jefferies called this an “aggressive pricing strategy” in China.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives expects the iPhone 17 lineup will boost Apple’s sales, especially in China. He noted that Wall Street’s sales estimates are too conservative, and while this won’t be a “super cycle,” everyone is waiting for a true game-changer.

But he believes that with iPhone 17’s configuration upgrades and the fact that many users are entering the latter half of their upgrade cycle, investors may be surprised by an AI-driven ecosystem — possibly powered by Google Gemini.

Pro Models See Major Camera Upgrades

The Pro models also delivered significant upgrades:

• Enhanced zoom capabilities
• Triple 48MP camera system
• More durable unibody aluminum and ceramic coating

Apple said the upgraded Pro models now offer the equivalent of eight professional lenses.

Additionally, the iPhone 17 Pro Max will have the longest battery life ever, supporting up to 39 hours of video playback — a 10-hour increase from the previous generation.

JPMorgan stated that the Pro models could be the main driver of improved product mix and margins for Apple.