Prediction: Joby Aviation Will Crush the Market in 2026. Here's Why.

Key Points

• The eVTOL market could be worth $9 trillion by 2050, and Joby is poised to capture a large chunk of that.

• It's in stage four of an FAA certification -- the next-to-last stage -- and has been testing aircraft in Dubai.

• Next year looks to be a breakout one for Joby, when it could start bringing in revenue from commercial flights.

• 10 stocks we like better than Joby Aviation ›

In our modern economy, the most valuable commodity isn't oil, lithium, or AI chips. It's actually time. Every technology that has reshaped markets (think cars, planes, or smartphones) did so by giving people minutes or hours they thought were gone. Investors who spotted those shifts early got rich later.

That, I think, is why Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) is such a compelling investment right now. Joby is a front-runner in the nascent electric verticle take-off and landing (eVTOL) market. Its aircraft are convenient for urban hops where long runways are unfeasible. They also have electric motors, which make them quieter and less polluting than helicopters, and they can taxi passengers for a hundred miles or so on a single charge.

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It's hard to overstate eVTOLs' potential for public transportation. Any travelers who have crawled through traffic to the airport while their flight time ticks closer would surely love to fly stress-free to the terminal instead. Add in other important eVTOL applications -- like medical emergencies and package delivery -- and it's easy to understand why Morgan Stanley believes the eVTOL market will grow to $9 trillion by 2050.

The potential for disruption is huge. But with plenty of players in this space, including rival Archer Aviation, what makes Joby Aviation the right eVTOL stock to buy now? Here's why I think this industrial stock will crush the market in 2026.

2026: The year Joby Aviation puts passengers into the air?

For those who have been watching the Joby story closely, the biggest hurdle is still regulatory. The company has built and flown aircraft, but it can't carry paying passengers until it clears the certification process of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). To date, no eVTOL company has been cleared to fly passengers commercially.

But Joby is making real progress. By the end of the second quarter, management said it had completed about 70% of stage four of the certification process, while the FAA was more than 50% through with its portion. That doesn't mean it's 70% closer to putting paying passengers into the air -- it still needs to clear stage five, as well as obtain a Production Certificate.

But it does mean the company has cleared a large chunk of the technical work that stands between testing prototypes and selling tickets for flights.

Joby eVTOLs. Image source: Joby Aviation.

At the same time, it's making progress overseas. In Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, Joby completed 21 piloted test flights this summer in temperatures that neared 110 degrees. The company sees itself on schedule to finish its "vertiport" at the Dubai International Airport in early 2026 and recently reaffirmed a commitment to fly commercial passengers in that same year.

In the U.S., Joby is also making strategic moves. Early in August, it partnered with aerospace and defense specialist L3Harris Technologies to start developing a gas turbine hybrid craft for defense purposes. Test flights are expected this fall, with demonstrations targeted for 2026.

All of this is setting Joby up for what looks to be a breakout 2026. Going from a pre-revenue company to one that's flying passengers commercially overseas could give the stock a modest valuation boost, especially if FAA certification for U.S. flights is nearly in its grip. It could be the year in which Joby finally proves a decades-long thesis: That it can fly customers safely, and at scale, under real-world conditions.

Cash burn could clip Joby's wings

Although the company is making progress to get FAA certification, it's not there yet. And although it has strategic partnership with blue chip manufacturing and aviation giants -- like Toyota and Delta Airlines -- its cash situation could become a problem if it doesn't start making money soon.

The company currently sits on about $991 million in cash. At its current burn rate (about $500 million over the trailing 12 months), that gives it less than a couple of years before it will need an injection of new cash, if nothing comes sooner.

The company also has a rich valuation. With a market capitalization of about $11 billion, and a full-year revenue estimate of roughly $232,000, Joby's price-to-sales (P/S) multiple is absurdly in the tens of thousands. A lot of expectation is already priced in; expect this stock to be volatile on the heels of any good (or bad) news.

Still, the market hasn't seen a truly disruptive industrial stock since Uber Technologies, and Joby has the know-how and backing to change how we taxi around cities. Aggressive growth-stock investors have much to love about Joby. More-cautious investors, however, might want to put their money in a different stock or an industrial exchange-traded fund (ETF).

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Steven Porrello has positions in Archer Aviation. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends L3Harris Technologies and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.