EUR: Dovish forecasts, hawkish Lagarde – Commerzbank

As expected, the ECB lowered its interest rates by another 25 basis points to 2.0% yesterday. However, the exchange rate only really started to move during the press conference, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

Only one further ECB rate cut is expected

"Although the ECB significantly lowered its inflation forecasts and now expects a price increase of only 1.6% in the coming year, Christine Lagarde sounded surprisingly hawkish. According to the President of the Central Bank, the ECB is well positioned with its current interest rate to support growth and bring inflation back below the 2% mark. For the moment, this does not sound as if further interest rate cuts are planned."

"Lagarde also had to admit that not all council members had voted in favor of another cut in the key interest rate, even though the move was based on a broad consensus. It could therefore be that the statements were also intended to appease the minority who were probably against a move, or at least expressed reservations."

"Before the ECB meeting, the market was speculating about two further interest rate cuts this year, but after the meeting, only one further cut is now expected. As a result, the EUR/USD gained ground yesterday and almost reached 1.15. It is unlikely to break this mark today unless the US labor market report is very weak, which would weigh on the USD."