DXY: Bearish but pace of decline may slow – OCBC

Markets were largely quiet overnight with US and UK markets closed for public holiday. DXY was last at 99.29 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Consolidation not ruled out intra-day

"Daily momentum shows signs of turning mild bearish but decline in RSI shows signs of moderation. Consolidation not ruled out intra-day. Next support at 97.90 (2025 low), 97.40 levels. Resistance at 100.1 (21 DMA) and 100.80 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 peak to trough)."

"For now, tariff uncertainties have re-surfaced following Trump’s tariff threat on EU (although it is delayed) and smartphone makers. It remains unclear if tariffs on pharmaceutical and semiconductors are still coming. Two weeks ago, Trump also said that the US will send letters to some of its trading partners to unilaterally impose new tariff rates in the coming weeks."

"It is also unclear if these are new tariff rates on top of those earlier announced or if they supersede previously announced tariffs rates. Policy unpredictability surrounding Trump’s tariffs, ballooning debt and deficits are some US-centric risks that may continue to undermine confidence in the USD."