AUD/USD retraces to near 0.6400 as US Dollar strives to gain ground

Source Fxstreet
  • AUD/USD ticks lower to near 0.6400 as the US Dollar aims for a cushion after a sharp decline in the last few weeks.
  • US President Trump has assaulted the Fed’s independence for not lowering interest rates.
  • The trade war between the US and China could impact the Australian Dollar.

The AUD/USD pair corrects slightly to near 0.6400 during European trading hours on Tuesday after posting a fresh four-month high at 0.6440 earlier in the day. The Aussie pair retraces as the US Dollar (USD) strives to gain ground after remaining in the downside trajectory in the last few weeks.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, looks for a cushion after posting a fresh three-year low near 98.00.

However, the outlook of the US Dollar remains bearish as its safe-haven status has come under pressure due to the deepening tussle between United States (US) President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.

Donald Trump has been criticizing Powell for not lowering interest rates and has blamed that his restrictive monetary policy stance could lead to an economic slowdown.

"With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW," Trump wrote in a post on Truth.Social on Monday.

Though investors have underpinned the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar, it is underperforming against other peers on Tuesday as investors worry that the escalated trade war between the US and China will impact the Australian economy significantly. Given that the Australian economy relies heavily on its exports to China, fears of a potential slowdown in Beijing also weighed on the Aussie Dollar.

US Dollar FAQs

The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.

The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
WTI slips below $90.50 as Trump signals no pre-election strike on IranWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price declines after posting nearly 2.5% gains in the previous day, trading around $90.30 per barrel during Asian hours on Friday.
Author  FXStreet
Oct 09, Fri
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price declines after posting nearly 2.5% gains in the previous day, trading around $90.30 per barrel during Asian hours on Friday.
placeholder
Hurricane Isaias has shut in a quarter of Gulf oil output — can WTI clear $92 before Thursday's EIA report?WTI trades at $90.80 after rebounding roughly 3% from Wednesday's $87.96 low as Hurricane Isaias — the Atlantic season's first — forces producers to shut in about 25% of US Gulf of Mexico output. Brent holds at $103.41. The first official read on the disruption arrives with the EIA weekly petroleum report on Thursday 15 October — here are the key levels and both scenarios.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 09, Fri
WTI trades at $90.80 after rebounding roughly 3% from Wednesday's $87.96 low as Hurricane Isaias — the Atlantic season's first — forces producers to shut in about 25% of US Gulf of Mexico output. Brent holds at $103.41. The first official read on the disruption arrives with the EIA weekly petroleum report on Thursday 15 October — here are the key levels and both scenarios.
placeholder
US September CPI preview: inflation set to hit 3.7% — will the Fed hike in December?US September CPI lands Wednesday with headline inflation seen at 3.7% y/y and core at 0.2% m/m. December hike odds sit near 70% — here are the scenarios, the calendar and the key levels.
Author  Irene Q.
Yesterday 03: 23
US September CPI lands Wednesday with headline inflation seen at 3.7% y/y and core at 0.2% m/m. December hike odds sit near 70% — here are the scenarios, the calendar and the key levels.
placeholder
Gold posts first weekly gain in three weeks — can $4,200 hold through CPI?Spot gold closed at $4,194.645, up 1.47% — its first weekly gain in three weeks — and COMEX futures settled back above $4,200 at $4,220.30. Here are the drivers, the levels and the scenarios into Wednesday's CPI.
Author  Irene Q.
22 hours ago
Spot gold closed at $4,194.645, up 1.47% — its first weekly gain in three weeks — and COMEX futures settled back above $4,200 at $4,220.30. Here are the drivers, the levels and the scenarios into Wednesday's CPI.
goTop
quote