FOMC to cut rates five times in 2024 – TDS
Source Fxstreet
New Fed call: economists at TD Securities are now looking for the FOMC to cut rates by five times this year starting in May.
May is the most likely meeting where the Fed can begin easing policy
Notable shifts in the macro data and the Fed's likely bent to ease preemptively have led us to assign greater odds to a softer landing scenario for the US economy this year. In this context, we are now looking for the FOMC to cut rates five times in 2024, with the Fed funds rate ending the year at 4.00%-4.25%. We continue to expect the Fed will reach its neutral policy stance at 2.75%-3.00% by the end of 2025.
Given our still very constructive outlook for inflation, we still think that May is the most likely meeting where the Fed can begin easing policy. In our view, inflation will likely determine when the Fed will begin easing policy while economic activity will determine the pace and magnitude of rate cuts.
A still strong growth profile is currently allowing the Fed to be patient as it seeks to gather further confirmation that core price disinflation is not a temporary phenomenon. However, we think that at the first clear sign of growth deceleration, the Fed will react more swiftly toward loosening the policy restraint.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
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Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
