ECB's Holzmann: The case for another rate cut is getting harder to make
Source Fxstreet
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and head of the Austrian central bank, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) noted on Monday that warning signs that the ECB may undershoot inflation targets are growing, but overall inflation figures are still lopsided and make policy moves difficult.
Key highlights
Danger of undershooting 2% is not a reason to cut.
With core at 2.7%, ECB is already moving into neutral or slightly expansionary territory.
Below 2.5% there would be even fewer questions that we are no longer restrictive.
There is some possibility that we'll cut, and there is some possibility that we won't.
A decision in favour of another cut gets harder and harder, both now and beyond March.
I can't count too much on services inflation coming down.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Strong profits, falling shares: bank earnings day one meets a memory-chip rout — with CPI and ASML aheadGoldman Sachs blew past estimates (EPS $17.01 vs $13.09 expected, profit +33%) while JPMorgan missed ($5.75 vs $5.93) and Wells Fargo fell 3% — yet the S&P 500 finished flat at 7,805.45, pinned below its record close as a memory-chip rout (SOX −2.67%, Micron under $1,000) kept the pressure on. Tonight brings the week's decider: US September CPI at 8:30 ET, then Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and ASML before the open. Here are the levels, both cases, and the watch list.
Goldman Sachs blew past estimates (EPS $17.01 vs $13.09 expected, profit +33%) while JPMorgan missed ($5.75 vs $5.93) and Wells Fargo fell 3% — yet the S&P 500 finished flat at 7,805.45, pinned below its record close as a memory-chip rout (SOX −2.67%, Micron under $1,000) kept the pressure on. Tonight brings the week's decider: US September CPI at 8:30 ET, then Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and ASML before the open. Here are the levels, both cases, and the watch list.
US September CPI recap: inflation hits 3.7% as core runs hot — is an October Fed hike back on the table?September CPI landed hot: headline 3.7% y/y, core 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m. October hike odds jumped from ~22% to ~37% — yet the dollar faded to 101.74, gold closed higher and the S&P 500 fell 1.11%. Here is the full repricing, the levels and what to watch next.
September CPI landed hot: headline 3.7% y/y, core 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m. October hike odds jumped from ~22% to ~37% — yet the dollar faded to 101.74, gold closed higher and the S&P 500 fell 1.11%. Here is the full repricing, the levels and what to watch next.
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 16, 2026. Read on for the details.
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 19, 2026. Read on for the details.
Gold retests $4,200 as dollar and yields retreat — can bullion clear its hardest level?Spot gold traded near $4,175 on Monday (+0.23%), with an intraday high of $4,187.71 after last week's $4,073 ~ $4,217 range; COMEX futures briefly topped $4,200. The dollar slipped to 101.76 and 10-year yields eased from their highs, but October Fed hike odds near 52% and BofA's sub-$4,000 call still cap the upside. Here are the drivers, the levels and what would flip the script.
Spot gold traded near $4,175 on Monday (+0.23%), with an intraday high of $4,187.71 after last week's $4,073 ~ $4,217 range; COMEX futures briefly topped $4,200. The dollar slipped to 101.76 and 10-year yields eased from their highs, but October Fed hike odds near 52% and BofA's sub-$4,000 call still cap the upside. Here are the drivers, the levels and what would flip the script.
