U.S. unemployment rate ticked lower in January – RBC Economics

Source Fxstreet

The exceptional run of U.S. labour market strength persisted in January, RBC Economics’ Senior Economist Claire Fan notes.

US unemployment rate drops to 4%

“The exceptional run of U.S. labour market strength persisted in January, even with a small miss in payroll employment gain (143k vs. consensus 170k) and large and negative backward benchmark revisions to the level of payroll employment.”

“The unemployment rate dropped to 4% (and would have been 3.9% without annual adjustments to the population controls) and wage growth among private sectors remained elevated.”

“Today's report confirms our expectations that a stable and strong U.S. jobs market does not need support from further Fed rate cuts. We continue to expect the central bank will hold Fed Funds steady at the current 4.25% - 4.5% range throughout 2025.”

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
US to delay new "overcapacity" tariffs on China — what the pause means for trade, inflation and the dollarWashington is expected to hold off announcing new tariffs over Chinese "overcapacity" until after the 24 September summit, according to Bloomberg. The postponed plan would have added 7.5% to Chinese goods, taking second-term US tariffs to around 20%. Here is what is on the table, and what a deal versus no deal would mean for the yuan, Hong Kong equities and the dollar.
Author  Mitrade
Sep 18, Fri
Washington is expected to hold off announcing new tariffs over Chinese "overcapacity" until after the 24 September summit, according to Bloomberg. The postponed plan would have added 7.5% to Chinese goods, taking second-term US tariffs to around 20%. Here is what is on the table, and what a deal versus no deal would mean for the yuan, Hong Kong equities and the dollar.
placeholder
Gold ends three-week slide at the $4,400 line — eight straight days of ETF inflows vs a 5% 10-year and a 100 dollarSpot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
Author  Suzie
Sep 20, Sun
Spot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
18 hours ago
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Memory chips surge, Nasdaq notches a second straight record close — why the Dow fell 185 points anywayMicron gained 5%, SanDisk 6.8%, Seagate 4% and Western Digital 3% as the memory complex led the Nasdaq Composite to a second consecutive record close of 27,244.28. But the Dow fell 185 points as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Schwab slid more than 3% each — a split tape that says more about positioning than about the economy.
Author  Irene Q.
18 hours ago
Micron gained 5%, SanDisk 6.8%, Seagate 4% and Western Digital 3% as the memory complex led the Nasdaq Composite to a second consecutive record close of 27,244.28. But the Dow fell 185 points as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Schwab slid more than 3% each — a split tape that says more about positioning than about the economy.
placeholder
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts toward $4.300 with bears gaining tractionGold (XAU/USD) retraces Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday and drifts lower, approaching the $4,300 area as the US Dollar Index (DXY) rallies further amid high US Treasury yields.
Author  FXStreet
14 hours ago
Gold (XAU/USD) retraces Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday and drifts lower, approaching the $4,300 area as the US Dollar Index (DXY) rallies further amid high US Treasury yields.
goTop
quote