USD/JPY: Oversold conditions suggest any decline may not reach 150.60 – UOB Group

Source Fxstreet

Further weakness US Dollar (USD) is not ruled out; deeply oversold conditions suggest any decline may not reach 150.60. In the longer run, USD outlook remains negative; the level to monitor is 150.00, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD outlook remains negative

24-HOUR VIEW: “USD sold off sharply two days ago. Yesterday, we indicated that ‘despite the deeply oversold conditions, the weakness has not stabilised.’ We highlighted that USD ‘could drop further, but given the oversold conditions, it might not be able to break the significant support at 151.80.’ The 151.80 support was tested in Asian trade yesterday but held. However, the level gave way during NY session as USD plunged. The breach of the significant led to a sharp selloff to 151.23. While further USD weakness is not ruled out, deeply oversold conditions decline suggest that any decline may not reach 150.60 (minor support is at 150.00). Resistance levels are at 151.80 and 152.50.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We revised our USD outlook to negative yesterday (06 Feb, spot at 152.60), but we noted that ‘there is a significant support level at 151.80.’ We did not expect USD to breach the support level as quickly. The outlook remains negative, and the level to monitor now is 150.00. We will maintain our negative view as long as 153.30 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 154.30 yesterday) is not breached.”

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Dollar holds above 100 near a 3-month high — three Fed speakers and a $69 billion auction land tonightThe dollar index closed at 100.43 on Monday, its highest close since late July, after a weekly gain of about 1% — the best in more than three months — and is holding above the 100.00 handle in Asia. Three Fed officials speak tonight alongside a $69 billion two-year note auction, the first leg of $183 billion of Treasury supply this week.
Author  Suzie
Sep 22, Tue
The dollar index closed at 100.43 on Monday, its highest close since late July, after a weekly gain of about 1% — the best in more than three months — and is holding above the 100.00 handle in Asia. Three Fed officials speak tonight alongside a $69 billion two-year note auction, the first leg of $183 billion of Treasury supply this week.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Memory chips surge, Nasdaq notches a second straight record close — why the Dow fell 185 points anywayMicron gained 5%, SanDisk 6.8%, Seagate 4% and Western Digital 3% as the memory complex led the Nasdaq Composite to a second consecutive record close of 27,244.28. But the Dow fell 185 points as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Schwab slid more than 3% each — a split tape that says more about positioning than about the economy.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Micron gained 5%, SanDisk 6.8%, Seagate 4% and Western Digital 3% as the memory complex led the Nasdaq Composite to a second consecutive record close of 27,244.28. But the Dow fell 185 points as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Schwab slid more than 3% each — a split tape that says more about positioning than about the economy.
placeholder
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts toward $4.300 with bears gaining tractionGold (XAU/USD) retraces Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday and drifts lower, approaching the $4,300 area as the US Dollar Index (DXY) rallies further amid high US Treasury yields.
Author  FXStreet
Sep 23, Wed
Gold (XAU/USD) retraces Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday and drifts lower, approaching the $4,300 area as the US Dollar Index (DXY) rallies further amid high US Treasury yields.
placeholder
US input costs rose at the fastest pace in four years — the September flash PMI beat is an inflation story, not a growth storyUS September flash PMIs came in far above expectations, with the composite at 58.4, a five-year high. But the detail that moved markets was input cost inflation at its fastest since October 2022, driven by fuel, transport and supply shortages. Brent is back above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest since 2007.
Author  Suzie
Yesterday 06: 46
US September flash PMIs came in far above expectations, with the composite at 58.4, a five-year high. But the detail that moved markets was input cost inflation at its fastest since October 2022, driven by fuel, transport and supply shortages. Brent is back above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest since 2007.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote