Mitrade Insights is dedicated to providing investors with rich, timely and most valuable financial information to help investors grasp the market situation and find timely trading opportunities.

2021

Best News & Analysis Provider

FxDailyInfo

2022

Best Forex Educational Resources Global

International Business Magazine

Insights

News

Economic Indicator

US CPI Preview: A rate cut as early as March is unlikely if the figures come in as expected – Commerzbank

Source Fxstreet

Today, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be a crucial staging post for any Fed cuts this year. Economists at Commerzbank analyze why it is simply too early to think about cutting rates under current circumstances.

Disinflation is a marathon, not a sprint

We expect the core rate to be similar to the monthly rate in December. The annual rate is likely to fall only slightly. The annual rate for the headline rate is expected to fall somewhat more sharply, but here the dynamics on a month-on-month basis are similar. In other words, a continuation of the momentum of recent months.

At this point, one might ask why I am commenting so extensively on today's figures when, on the face of it, they contain little new information. There are several reasons. Firstly, we could of course be in for a surprise today. And the surprises of recent months have made it abundantly clear that things can then get very volatile.

On the other hand, the figures are also likely to underline what the Fed has been keen to stress over the past two weeks. Namely, a few more months of good data may be needed before the all-clear can be given. If the figures come in as expected, it should make it clear to the last market participant that a rate cut as early as March is unlikely.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recommended Articles

US August CPI lands tonight: after a 5.4% PPI shock, will the Fed hike on September 16?US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.

Author Irene Q.

Sep 11, Fri

US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.

Brent tests $108 as a key export pipeline stays shut — can the rally clear $110?Brent crude rose 2.55% to $106.97 and WTI 2.32% to $102.30 as a major regional export pipeline remained offline with no restart timeline. Front-month backwardation has widened to $5.53 from $3.84 a week ago, European gas is at its highest since December 2022, and one analyst sees $119.48 if talks stall.

Author Irene Q.

Sep 14, Mon

Brent crude rose 2.55% to $106.97 and WTI 2.32% to $102.30 as a major regional export pipeline remained offline with no restart timeline. Front-month backwardation has widened to $5.53 from $3.84 a week ago, European gas is at its highest since December 2022, and one analyst sees $119.48 if talks stall.

Fed hike odds near 90% into Wednesday's decision — how to trade the dollar, gold and the S&P 500 A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.

Author Suzie

Sep 14, Mon

A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.

Gold falls below $4,300 as higher US yields bolster Fed rate hike bets Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,295 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as rising bond yields and surging energy prices strengthen expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this week.

Author FXStreet

Yesterday 01: 23

Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,295 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as rising bond yields and surging energy prices strengthen expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this week.

【Daily Brief】10-year Treasury yield briefly tops 5%, S&P 500 slips to 7,602 and the dollar firms at 99.3 as the Fed's decision eve begins The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014% on Monday — its first print above 5% since October 2023 — while the S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,619.98 and the dollar index firmed to 99.3. Here is the full market wrap ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, the dot plot and the August retail sales report, plus today's CLARITY Act Senate vote.

Author Irene Q.

Yesterday 08: 16

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014% on Monday — its first print above 5% since October 2023 — while the S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,619.98 and the dollar index firmed to 99.3. Here is the full market wrap ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, the dot plot and the August retail sales report, plus today's CLARITY Act Senate vote.

Popular Symbols