US: The outlook is improving, but some risks remain – National Bank of Canada
Source Fxstreet
Recent weeks have been punctuated by a number of positive developments for the U.S. economy, the first of which was the significant upward revision to historical data on household disposable income. However, this was partially offset by weaker recent momentum, NBC’s Jocelyn Paquet notes.
Fed to continue cutting its key rate at a gradual pace
“In reality, however, the future path of household income will depend first and foremost on the evolution of the labour market. Which brings us to the second piece of good news of recent weeks: September's solid employment figures.”
“As for the third piece of good news, the Federal Reserve has not only decided to begin its cycle of monetary easing with a jumbo 50 basis point cut, but has also underlined its willingness to cut benchmark rates further in the months ahead, if the latest edition of its dot plot is anything to go by.”
“Assuming that inflation remains under control and that the U.S. elections do not cause too much disruption, we expect the Fed to continue cutting its key rate at a gradual pace over the coming months. This will probably not prevent growth from slowing significantly by the middle of next year, although we do not expect the economy to contract. Following this scenario, we anticipate growth of 2.6% and 1.2% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. This is better than the figures of 2.5% and 0.9% we presented last month.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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